Anthony P's NBA Model December 21, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR DEC 21, 2022

Memphis road struggles continue and lost versus the Nuggets who were without Murray. The AI was strong on the Bulls and they won SU by 10 pts in Miami!

My model has the Knicks showing 8% EV and I have the line at -3.5. The line was moving toward that number and reached -2 but then moved back to -1.5. This is a perfect example of a trap game. The Raptors and been terrible on the road this year and they are in the mix of a 6-game losing streak and 1-5 ATS. VanVleet came out last night saying publicly that his team is not built to have a ton of injuries. Management didn't like that so, more drama up north. Trent Jr is questionable for tonight's game. The Knicks defense has been lights out recently and has allowed on average 102 pts in the last 5 games while the league average is 114. They are 8-0 SU and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games. During that 8-game stretch, they dominated opponents by winning games with an ATS margin of 17 pts. THAT IS HUGE!!! Why is the line so low?? The Knicks played last night and we will need to keep an eye on who will play and who will not.

Two nights ago we covered OKC and Portland and we get to do it again. OKC and the under once again show value. Last game, OKC and the over cashed and smart money were. bang on. SGA ended up playing and confirmed why the number moved on OKC's side. What has changed from the last game? Looking at the game logs, if Portland shoots 50% again in this game and the ref stops calling stupid fouls on them, Portland should cover this number. If SGA doesn't play for whatever reason, the Blazers are a solid pick but he should be good to go.

I have included the AI projections on the far right of the model but please make sure you take a look at the app for the most updated projection.

The AI is heavy on the 76ers at -16 and OKC at -3.5. It also finds value on Minnesota and has them at -1.

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