Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Matchup Preview - September 25th, 2022

Today's contest between the Marlins and the Nationals pits THE BAT's 307th ranked SP (Anibal Sanchez) against the 131st ranked SP (Edward Cabrera). The rundown on Sanchez tells us that he leans on his cut-fastball 25.0% of the time and keeps hitters off balance with a changeup (26.0%). Cabrera is a four-seam guy (20.3%) who brings a changeup as his most-trusted secondary offering. Advanced stats (namely, FIP) tell us that Sanchez deserves something like a 6.29 ERA, compared to his actual ERA of 4.40. On that front, Cabrera's ERA sits at 2.91 and his FIP at 4.79.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Anibal Sanchez has a large reverse platoon split and will be disadvantaged facing 7 same-handed hitters in this game.

• Luis Garcia is an extreme groundball hitter and faces the strong infield defense of Miami (#3-best on the slate today).

• Victor Robles has a high pull rate on his flyballs (37.3% — 96th percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 8th-deepest LF fences today.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Edward Cabrera's 96 mph fastball velocity since the start of last season grades out in the 97th percentile among SPs.

• Nick Fortes has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (57% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The Miami Marlins have been the 9th-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to The Sharp Model X, and are likely to negatively regress the rest of the season

Betting Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.30 Units / 16% ROI)

• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 35 of their last 57 away games (+9.35 Units / 13% ROI)

• Sandy Alcantara has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+10.05 Units / 33% ROI)