MLB Bet of the Day | May 1, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 38-41-1, -4.33u
RECAP: We had five bets over the past two days, and our MLB of the Day bet was voided due to weather, and postponed to today. For some reason, we’ve had a number of our MLB of the Days voided due to weather, which is super frustrating; but alas, we go 1-3 on the day. Today’s the first day of May, so let’s make it count!

May 1st, 2024

The Milwaukee Brewers have undoubtedly been the best story in the MLB so far (which pains me to say as a Cubs fan), because they lost their ace, and are still in a great position to compete for their division. It’s been on the back of players like William Contreras and Freddy Peralta, but there have been a number of contributing pieces. Today, they try to close out their series with a win against the Tampa Bay Rays, who have muddled to start the season. 

I am a known Zach Eflin fan, but he’s just so noncompetitive on the road as a pitcher so far this MLB season. Through three games he’s allowed nine earned runs with a WHIP at 1.35, and Milwaukee gets on base against righties at home over 33% of the time. His road splits are made worse when you realize that all nine runs have been given up against the Angels and White Sox, two of the worst teams in the league on offense this season. Today, he faces a Brewers offense that is top-five in OPS this season, even if they drop off a little on the road. 

The Crew are sending Colin Rea to the mound, who has one little blip on his track record this season, but has otherwise been effective. He brings a 1.17 WHIP to home games this season and our Sharp App Money Handles tool loves the Brewers here this morning. We’re seeing 40% of the bets placed on this team, but a resounding 78% of the early money on this team. I love them at plus money, especially if we’re getting that great 39% difference on the money handles. 

These offenses have also trended in opposite directions this season, and the Brewers know how to close out a series. They’re 6-2 so far in Game Threes this year, and are looking to win this series at home. They’re 3-1 after a game two win this season, and look for them to continue their momentum into this game today. 

Colin Rea should be formidable at home, but expect these bats to get to Eflin. While Eflin is a big name, Vegas having this game as close to even is telling; they expect these Milwaukee bats to show up today. Let’s take the Brew Crew on plus-money. 

PICK: Milwaukee Brewers ML

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