Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Matchup Preview - September 28th, 2022

Left-hander Martin Perez is expected to start today for Texas, while right-hander George Kirby gets the nod at home for Seattle. Perez enters this contest with a 2.90 ERA, backed up by a 3.20 FIP (which is a better measure of the things a pitcher can control). Kirby, meanwhile, has a 2.93 FIP underlying his 3.30 ERA. The last time Martin Perez was on the bump, the Rangers beat the Angels 5-3. He left allowing 3 earned runs and recording 5 strikeouts with 3 walks. Kirby's last start was against the Athletics, when the Mariners won 9-5. Over 2.1 innings pitched, he allowed 5 earned runs with 7 hits. He also recorded 1 strikeout with 3 walks.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Martin Perez's 2052 rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 14th percentile among starters.

• Kole Calhoun has been unlucky with his wOBA this year; his .260 mark is quite a bit lower than his .301 Expected wOBA (based on The Sharp Model X's interpretation of Statcast data).

• The Texas Rangers bullpen projects as the 10th-worst in MLB, according to The Sharp Model.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Jesse Winker has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (90% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order today.

• Carlos Santana has a high pull rate on his flyballs (38.4% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.

Betting Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+1.25 Units / 15% ROI)

• Kole Calhoun has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 25 away games (+16.15 Units / 31% ROI)