Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels Matchup Preview - September 29th, 2022

Cole Irvin (174th ranked SP via The Sharp Model) is projected to take the mound for Athletics as they battle the Angels and Shohei Ohtani (2nd ranked SP) at Angel Stadium. The quick scouting report on Irvin: his main fastball is a four-seamer, which he uses 36.8% of the time. His primary out-pitch is a curveball (19.5%). Meanwhile, Ohtani primarily throws a four-seamer fastball (29.5%) and his most-used secondary offering is his slider (37.7%). The Sharp Model X projects Irvin for 3.0 earned runs and 3.6 strikeouts in this matchup. On the other side, Ohtani is forecasted for 2.0 earned runs and 7.4 strikeouts.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Cole Irvin has averaged 18.3 outs per start this year, checking in at the 91st percentile.

• Tony Kemp's average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 86.6-mph figure last year has dropped off to 84.2-mph.

• The Oakland Athletics bullpen profiles as the worst in the majors, according to The Sharp Model.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Shohei Ohtani has relied on his non-fastballs 11.8% more often this year (67.7%) than he did last year (55.9%).

• Mike Trout has been lucky with his home runs this year; his 48.30 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is quite a bit higher than his 40.10 Expected HR/600 (based on The Sharp Model X's interpretation of Statcast data).

• Kurt Suzuki has a high pull rate on his flyballs (39.8% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 10th-deepest LF fences today.

Betting Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 39 games (+8.90 Units / 19% ROI)

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 17 away games (+4.10 Units / 20% ROI)

• Taylor Ward has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+9.70 Units / 23% ROI)