MLB Bet of the Day | April 14, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 21-21, -1.33u
RECAP: It’s officially official: we may be back. After a rough start to the MLB season, we’ve hit our last five bets and are going streaking. Yesterday, the Giants left the Rays in the dust, the Reds won easily, and the over in New York was never in question as we go 3-0 on the day. I had a couple of haters in the chats about the Giants, but glad that the data proved us well during yesterday’s slate. Let’s tackle today’s slate and look for some winners in what could be an eventful Sunday. 

April 14th, 2024

In the third game of their series, the Boston Red Sox are trying to win the series after taking game two yesterday against the Los Angeles Angels, who have really had a surprisingly decent start to their season behind bats like Taylor Ward and Logan O’Hoppe. The Sox will be without their star third baseman in Rafael Devers, but will roll out their usual starters despite the powerhouse on the bench due to injury.

I am also the President of the Brayan Bello fan club, and I believe that this is a matchup made for him (despite it projected to be a high-scoring game). Throughout his three starts so far this season, he’s allowed five earned runs over fifteen innings, but his advanced stats are what are drawing me to him today. The Angels have only been hitting .212 against righties this season on the road, and have been held to an OBA of .300; yet, Bello’s velocity is up and his walk rate is way down, and going back to last season, it was home sweet home. He’s historically struggled during day games, but we’ve seen promise in the last home game he pitched, when he went five innings of one-run ball. 

The other side is Tyler Anderson, the Angels staple who has yet to allow a run yet this season through fourteen innings pitched. He’s shown that he can be dominant at times, but regression comes for everyone; the total is set at around ten runs across most major sports books, and that means that even the books are expecting him to regress today against these bats. Going back to last season, Anderson allowed over six runs per nine innings on the road, and these Boston bats have come alive to begin the season. 

The Book Liabilities section of the Sharp Report has been a must-fade all MLB season long so far, and today is going to be no different as we select the Angels as our target to fade. I love Brayan Bello and these bats are hot, expect for a high-ish scoring game with the Sox coming out on top. Go Boston! 

PICK: Boston Red Sox ML

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