Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels Matchup Preview - August 14th, 2022

2 years ago

Editor

The Twins are scheduled to start Chris Archer (2-5, 4.02 ERA) against Angels starting pitcher Tucker Davidson (1-3, 7.91 ERA) on Sunday. In Chris Archer's last outing, the Twins lost 2-3 against the Blue Jays. He pitched 5 innings allowing 2 earned runs with 4 hits. He also recorded 4 strikeouts with 0 walks. The last time Tucker Davidson took the mound, he recorded a loss as the Angels got beat by the Mariners 3-6. He finished with 4 IP, 1 K, 5 BB, while allowing 6 earned runs on 6 hits. Today, Archer projects for 4.46 innings pitched with 2.5 ER, 4.7 hits, 4.1 strikeouts, and 1.6 walks, according to THE BAT. Meanwhile, THE BAT projects Davidson's average outcome to be 5.44 IP, 2.8 ER, 5.8 H, 4.3 strikeouts, and 1.7 walks.

Minnesota Twins Insights

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Chris Archer must realize this, because he has utilized his secondary offerings a lot this year: 62.3% of the time, checking in at the 88th percentile.
Gary Sanchez has been unlucky with his home runs this year; his 20.40 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is quite a bit lower than his 34.00 Expected HR/600 (based on THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data).
Byron Buxton has a high pull rate on his flyballs (40.8% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball's 10th-deepest LF fences today.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

Tucker Davidson's 2021 rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 13th percentile among starters.
Jared Walsh has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (85% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today.
Projected catcher Kurt Suzuki projects as a weak pitch framer, according to THE BAT projection system.

Betting Trends

The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 16 of their last 27 games at home (+7.05 Units / 23% ROI)
The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 103 games (+10.65 Units / 9% ROI)
Jared Walsh has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+8.45 Units / 50% ROI)