Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Matchup Preview - September 28th, 2022

Baltimore's center fielder Cedric Mullins looks to continue his strong season as he takes on Rafael Devers and the Red Sox. This season Cedric Mullins is batting .261 with 16 home runs, 87 runs, 64 RBIs, and 32 stolen bases. Today he's projected to bat 3rd in the lineup with a The Sharp Model X projection of .240 Avg, .314 wOBA and .18 HRs. On the Red Sox side, Rafael Devers has shined this year (.293 Avg, 27 HRs, 80 Rs, 87 RBIs, & 3 SBs). He's projected to bat 6th and The Sharp Model X projects his average performance today as a .331 wOBA, and .11 HRs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• The Sharp Model X projects Dean Kremer to throw 79 pitches today (4th-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Ryan McKenna has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (82% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today.

• Anthony Santander has a high pull rate on his flyballs (37.8% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences today.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Rich Hill has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches 13.8% more often this year (64.2%) than he did last season (50.4%).

• Rob Refsnyder has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 93-mph average to last year's 95.7-mph mark.

Betting Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 38 games (+5.75 Units / 13% ROI)

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 31 away games (+6.70 Units / 19% ROI)

• Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+7.05 Units / 20% ROI)