Val's Australian Open Plays - Round 3 (day 1)

We go 2-2 -2.08 units, we started off the night strong hitting the Sabalenka sets play and the over in Fokina/Paul match, we then went on to lose the Kudla/Humbert over by half a game and Fritz unfortunately didn't show up and Popyrin used to home town crowd to cause another big upset.

Record 5-3 -1.20 units

Best bets

Francis Tiafoe -109 (Start time apx 3am EST)

American F. Tiafoe goes head to head versus Russia's K. Khachanov in the wee hours of the morning Friday in this third round matchup. Tiafoe really came into his own mid way through the 2022 season and it all culminated with the best showing of his career at the US Open, the laundry list of players he beat was ridiculously impressive: D. Schwartman, R. Nadal & A. Rublev before falling to eventual Champ C. Alcaraz in a 5 set marathon in the semi-finals. His 2023 season is starting how 2022 ended, he's 7-0 to start the season and has looked dominant in most of his matches. Khachanov hasn't been much of a factor on tour since 2018, and he's lost matches with regularity and often in situations where he was a favorite. I like Tiafoe to get the job done tonight and Statsational's model agrees as we have a 4% edge with Tiafoe at this price.

Risk 2.18 units for 2 units

Madison Keys +117 (Start time apx 3am EST)

On the women's side, I'm backing American M. Keys versus Belarus's V. Azarenka. Azarenka is 33 years old and isn't the dominant force she was close to a decade ago and we've reached a point in this tournament where she's really going to be tested. Azarenka is 4-2 on the season and I think is primed to be upset by Keys tonight. Keys is undefeated so far this season at 7-0 and honestly feel she's the better player of the two at this point of their careers. It really comes down to the mental part of the game for Keys, if she starts with the unforced errors it can snowball real fast. Even though Keys is 0-3 in her career versus Azarenka this is a matchup that is a toss up and I will gladly back the younger and more talented player at this point at plus money.

Risk 2 units for 2.34 units

Additional plays

Barbara Krejcikova -143, risk .50 units (Start time 7pm EST)

Jessica Pegula/Marta Kostyuk O2.5 sets +170 risk .50 units (Start time 9pm EST)

Cameron Norrie/Jiri Lehecka O3.5 sets -164 risk .50 units (Start time 11:30pm EST)

Denis Shapovalov -101, risk .50 units (Start time 3am EST)

GL tonight

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