Statsational WTA Model Australia Open January 17, 2024
John Alesia
We will add new sports and models as we continue to build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.I will post my models for upcoming Tennis matchups as often as possible. Be on the lookout during the day because there may be multiple tournaments worldwide.Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line. The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With tennis (and soccer) I tend to be a bit leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the player we show to have an edge.You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a great edge losing often. On matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high, I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line. Preferably sets, but you may also look at the game spread line. The reason for this is a high unlikelihood that the big dog wins the match, but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.Today's lines are taken from Draftkings.
January 17
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Caroline Wozniacki | -295 | -270 | -2% |
Maria Timofeeva | 235 | 270 | -3% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Leylah Fernandez | -500 | -381 | -4% |
Alycia Parks | 370 | 381 | 0% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Tamara Korpatsch | 425 | 535 | -3% |
Barbora Krejcikova | -600 | -535 | -1% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Jelena Ostapenko | -425 | -306 | -6% |
Ajla Tomljanovic | 320 | 306 | 1% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Amanda Anisimova | -310 | -285 | -2% |
Nadia Podoroska | 245 | 285 | -3% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Kamilla Rakhimova | -120 | -142 | 4% |
Diane Parry | -105 | 142 | -10% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Ons Jabeur | 105 | -179 | 15% |
Mirra Andreeva | -125 | 179 | -20% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Anastasia Zakharova | 135 | 519 | -26% |
Kaja Juvan | -165 | -519 | 22% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Paula Badosa | 115 | 108 | 2% |
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova | -135 | -108 | -6% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Laura Siegemund | -165 | -259 | 10% |
Storm Sanders | 135 | 259 | -15% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Alina Korneeva | 225 | 346 | -8% |
Beatriz Haddad Maia | -285 | -346 | 4% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Caroline Dolehide | 1400 | 1715 | -1% |
Cori Gauff | -5000 | -1715 | -4% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Lesia Tsurenko | -205 | -237 | 3% |
Rebeka Masarova | 165 | 237 | -8% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Elina Svitolina | -750 | -266 | -16% |
Viktoriya Tomova | 500 | 266 | 11% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Caroline Garcia | -290 | -273 | -1% |
Magdalena Frech | 230 | 273 | -3% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Mccartney Kessler | 600 | 391 | 6% |
Linda Noskova | -1000 | -391 | -11% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Katerina Siniakova | -235 | -150 | -10% |
Viktorija Golubic | 190 | 150 | 6% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Varvara Gracheva | 100 | -117 | 4% |
Dayana Yastremska | -125 | 117 | -9% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Tatjana Maria | 215 | 231 | -2% |
Jasmine Paolini | -270 | -231 | -3% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Arantxa Rus | 170 | 297 | -12% |
Anna Kalinskaya | -210 | -297 | 7% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Marta Kostyuk | 125 | 117 | 2% |
Elise Mertens | -150 | -117 | -6% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Brenda Fruhvirtova | 1200 | 1259 | 0% |
Aryna Sabalenka | -3500 | -1259 | -5% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Maria Sakkari | -1400 | -915 | -3% |
Elina Avanesyan | 750 | 915 | -2% |
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