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Statsational ATP Model January 30, 2024

John Alesia
John Alesia

We will add new sports and models as we continue to build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my models for upcoming Tennis matchups as often as possible. Be on the lookout during the day because there may be multiple tournaments worldwide.

Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line.

The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With tennis (and soccer) I tend to be a bit leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the player we show to have an edge.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line on matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high. Preferably sets, but you may also look at the game spread line. This is because there is a high likelihood that the big dog will win the match, but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.

Today's lines are taken from Draftkings.

January 30

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Hugo Gaston

115

199

-13%

Denis Shapovalov

-140

-199

8%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Maximilian Marterer

175

132

7%

Arthur Cazaux

-225

-132

-12%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Pablo Llamas Ruiz

160

153

1%

Richard Gasquet

-200

-153

-6%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Alexander Shevchenko

-290

-600

11%

Dalibor Svrcina

225

600

-16%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Flavio Cobolli

215

294

-6%

Gael Monfils

-280

-294

1%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Bernabe Zapata Miralles

300

168

12%

Constant Lestienne

-425

-168

-18%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Borna Coric

-260

-310

3%

Pedro Martinez

200

310

-9%

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