Statsational ATP Model Australian Open January 15, 2024
John Alesia
We will add new sports and models as we continue to build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.I will post my models for upcoming Tennis matchups as often as possible. Be on the lookout during the day because there may be multiple tournaments worldwide.Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line. The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With tennis (and soccer) I tend to be a bit leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the player we show to have an edge.You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often. I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line on matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high. Preferably sets, but you may also look at the game spread line. This is because there is a high likelihood that the big dog will win the match, but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.Today's lines are taken from Draftkings.
January 15
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Flavio Cobolli | 310 | 516 | -8% |
Nicolas Jarry | -400 | -516 | 4% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Sebastian Korda | -1200 | -1458 | 1% |
Vit Kopriva | 700 | 1458 | -6% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Patrick Kypson | 600 | 606 | 0% |
Emil Ruusuvuori | -1000 | -606 | -5% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Lorenzo Musetti | -260 | -114 | -19% |
Benjamin Bonzi | 205 | 114 | 14% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Roberto Carballes Baena | -150 | 143 | -19% |
Hugo Gaston | 125 | -143 | 14% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Terence Atmane | 1600 | 20231 | -5% |
Daniil Medvedev | -8000 | -20231 | 1% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Roberto Bautista Agut | 195 | 169 | 3% |
Ben Shelton | -245 | -169 | -8% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Constant Lestienne | 425 | 343 | 4% |
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | -650 | -343 | -9% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Alexei Popyrin | -600 | -350 | -8% |
Marc Polmans | 425 | 350 | 3% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Adrian Mannarino | -255 | -132 | -15% |
Stan Wawrinka | 205 | 132 | 10% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
James Duckworth | 110 | -121 | 7% |
Luca Van Assche | -135 | 121 | -12% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Zizou Bergs | 750 | 1204 | -4% |
Stefanos Tsitsipas | -1400 | -1204 | -1% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Denis Shapovalov | 125 | -290 | 30% |
Jakub Mensik | -155 | 290 | -35% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Aleksandar Vukic | 210 | 197 | 1% |
Jordan Thompson | -265 | -197 | -6% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Andy Murray | -135 | -227 | 12% |
Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 115 | 227 | -16% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Daniel Altmaier | 370 | 399 | -1% |
Karen Khachanov | -500 | -399 | -3% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Yannick Hanfmann | 160 | 442 | -20% |
Gael Monfils | -195 | -442 | 15% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Christopher Eubanks | 125 | -111 | 8% |
Taro Daniel | -150 | 111 | -13% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Alejandro Tabilo | -145 | -104 | -8% |
Aleksandar Kovacevic | 120 | 104 | 4% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Maximilian Marterer | -125 | -142 | 3% |
Nuno Borges | 105 | 142 | -7% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Ugo Humbert | -265 | -489 | 10% |
David Goffin | 210 | 489 | -15% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Zhizhen Zhang | -1800 | -336 | -18% |
Federico Coria | 900 | 336 | 13% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Rinky Hijikata | 130 | 194 | -9% |
Jan Lennard Struff | -160 | -194 | 4% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Alexandre Muller | -270 | -295 | 2% |
Hugo Grenier | 215 | 295 | -6% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Miomir Kecmanovic | -330 | -105 | -26% |
Yosuke Watanuki | 260 | 105 | 21% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Omar Jasika | 1400 | -4383 | -9% |
Hubert Hurkacz | -5000 | 4383 | 4% |
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