NBA Bet of the Day | January 28, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 137-91-3, +34.92u
RECAP: We’re finally getting back to our winning ways, hitting five out of our last six bets and getting back on the wagon. Our NBA of the Day hit once again, and we also hit a sweet +107 parlay based around PG B. Podz on the Warriors last night. I rarely play props, but when I do, they’re all based on our incredible Proptimizer. We gained 1.02 units yesterday, and we’ll look to continue to build today!

January 28, 2024

When we think about the 2023-2024 Atlanta Hawks, we pretty much think two things: unreliability and points. And that’s the case when they’re at home especially; they are one of the best overs teams in the league, and they’re taking on a Toronto team that has had a very interesting trend go their way when they’re on the road. 

While we don’t have data accessible in the app for our Money Handles tool (which is my primary tool that I use when determining which NBA bets I’ll be making that day), we have a ton of trends that are right up our alley. The first is that we’ve had a ton of line movement in favor of the over in this game, rising as much as eight points since the line opened. But, let’s take a look at these specific records on the over when it comes to these specific teams. 

On the road, Toronto are overs machines. The over is 14-8 on the season when the Raptors are on the road. When they’re a road underdog, the over hits 61% of the time. This is a similar trend that we’re seeing when we’re talking about the Hawks at home; they barely cover, and they score a LOT of points. When they’re a home favorite, the Over is hitting 60% of the time – and they’re covering by an average of EIGHT POINTS! That’s absolutely wild to think about. Raptors as the away dog? They cover the total by a total of nine. 

And their poor defenses translate beautifully to our trends as well. These teams are 1-1 on the over this season when playing each other, but this is their first time in Atlanta. Over their last five games, Atlanta is giving up an average of 125 points per game, and away from home, the Raptors put up 116. Toronto’s defense has been pretty good over their last five, but they’re still allowing 115 points per game. 

Overall, we should expect a ton of points scored in this one, especially because of these bad defenses that have struggled to keep offenses off the glass. Let’s take the over in this game based on the trends alone.

PICK:  Toronto / Atlanta over 242

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