NBA Bet of the Day | January 25, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 132-90-3, +31.17u
RECAP: It’s been an absolute freefall in the NBA of the Day, as a collective, we’ve lost almost six units this past week alone, with only one winning day over that stretch. The Cavaliers game almost killed me last night, when the game was trending for 210 at one point - meaning that our under would have cashed rather easily. But the Cavs and Bucks scored 70 in the fourth, and we got tanked again. We went 1-2 on the day.

January 25, 2024

The thing about the bottom of the Western Conference playoff teams is that most of them are hot messes, and two of those messes play tonight in a matchup between the Sacramento Kings and the home Golden State Warriors. 

While the Kings are average on the road (10-10), the Warriors have been in the bottom fourth of the league in their home record, as most teams have a positive record at home; the Warriors are just 12-11 at home this season. 

Our Money Handles tool gives the clear edge to the Kings as favorites, as on the money line, they have a mere 38% of the total bets placed; the Warriors own a whole lot of the money line, at 62%. Yet, the Dubs only hold 4% of the total money on the money line of this game - the Kings are the more dominant ones, with huge bets coming in - a whopping 96%. That’s a difference of nearly 60%, and one of the biggest discrepancies we’ve seen. 

Most books are hovering around Kings -2 if that suits you more, but we can get this ML at around -130, and that’s what I pounced on. 

As well, the Kings offense on the road is much better than the Warriors defense on their home court in nearly every statistical category. They lead the Warriors in scoring, rebounding, shot selection, and 3P%. Meanwhile, the Golden State offense is one of the most appalling at home, shooting only 46% from the field at home - and good for 26th in the league. The Kings have held teams under the league average on the road this season in scoring, and that bodes well for us Kings bettors. And, on defense, the Warriors over their last five allow the 27th most points in the league. YIKES! 

Let’s take the Warriors to flounder tonight and the Kings to take advantage and rise up in the NBA standings tonight.

PICK:  Sacramento Kings Moneyline

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