NBA Bet of the Day | January 24, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 131-88-3, +32.30u
RECAP: My friends, our freefall continues as we’ve missed quite a few plays over the past week. We’re down more than five units this week alone and struggling to piece together good plays. Our march towards 50 units on the year got much tougher this week, and it’s looking tough – but they’ll start falling our way.

January 23, 2024

Tonight, the Cleveland Cavaliers are heading to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks and new head coach Doc Rivers, as the Bucks look to solidify themselves as the premier team in the East. The Cavs, on the other hand, are looking to build on their already successful season and rise in the East standings to catch up to the top teams. 

But we aren’t even focused on the actual game tonight, because the Bucks are favored by seven and we aren’t seeing any significant data to back it up. We’re looking at the total, and the history between these teams tells us that the under may be the play. But let’s use the Sharp App tools to see where we should be putting our money. 

All throughout the day, the total in this game has been fluctuating because we haven’t been sure who exactly is playing. The total sits somewhere in between 236 and 238 currently, with most books having a line around 237.5 - that’s where I got this line. 

Our Sharp App Money Handles tool has this game as a clear under, with 35% of the total bets placed on the under, but 82% of the money placed on the total to go under that 237.5 line. That’s a major difference of 45% and something that we can look to to guide our play. The Sharp App Projections have this game right at 237, and if those projections are close, we should be in the clear. 

While both of these teams fluctuate in their over and under totals, the Bucks are one of the best in the league at the over, while the Cavs tend to lean towards the under. But recent games tell us a different story, as the Cavs have hit the under in seven out of their last ten games, and the Bucks are regressing to the mean slowly, hitting the over in only 50% of their last ten. The under has also hit three straight times when these teams meet, because they generally play each other extremely hard. 

The Cavaliers are also the best defense in the league over their last five games, allowing only 99 points per game. Let’s ride the hot hand tonight and take the under, as we look for the Cavaliers to set the tone in this game, especially against a team without a head coach.

PICK: Cleveland / Milwaukee under 237.5

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