NBA Bet of the Day | February 6, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 149-102-3, +35.38u
RECAP: You know, we’ve lost THREE NBA OF THE DAYS in a row, but it doesn’t REALLY matter, because we keep nailing our Sharp App PRO Picks. We went a beautiful 2-1 on the day on Sunday for a profit of .72, but profit is profit as I had two big unders hit to bring us above water again. I’m thrilled, and here’s to hoping we can nail another big day today.

February 6, 2024

The Miami Heat are one of those teams who can either go one of two ways: it can either be a blowout in their favor, or they don’t show up to the court whatsoever. Tonight, they’re taking on an Orlando Magic team looking for another win on the road. 

The Magic are one of the more dominant teams on the road, winning more than they lose away from their home court. The Heat, on the other hand, are consistent across the board, going 13-12 both home and away so far this season. The Magic are an ATS phenomenon, and the Heat are not great. But who cares… because the numbers say otherwise. 

Our money handles tool is absolutely cranked on Miami tonight, with 74% of the money and only 31% of the bets heading towards the Heat – good for a difference of 43%, and that marks perfect territory for our bet of the day. 

As well, the line has stayed pretty consistent throughout the day, and the best part is when we factor in our Sharp Report: the sportsbooks have a liability on the Orlando Magic tonight, therefore, we need to fade them. Aligns perfectly with what we’re seeing on our end, as well! 

As well, the margin of victory ATS for the Magic, while they win ATS, they still lose. Let’s explain. Their average margin of victory is -5 points per game when they’re an away underdog; that means that in the position they’re in tonight, they still lose by an average of five points per game. That means that, despite their success ATS, this fits into Miami’s favor, because the spread sits right now at -2.5 at some books, and -3 at others. 

The Magic struggle to score on the road and the Heat have improved their defense greatly over their last five games, not allowing more than 108 points in their last three, against potent offenses. This Magic offense is far from fireballers, and Miami is due to bounce back from their 2-8 ATS stretch that we’re seeing. 

That’s why the line is so close, and that’s why Vegas wants Miami to win tonight. Grab the Heat before this line moves to -3, and let’s cash out into the sunset.

PICK:   Miami Heat -2.5

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