NBA Bet of the Day | February 4, 2024
Mitch S
In this column, Mitch goes through the BEST BET he's seeing in the NBA today.
In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.If you have any questions, hit me up in the Discord, linked below, and be sure to add a PRO SUBSCRIPTION to your daily routine to maximize your best bets, no matter the sport.
OVERALL RECORD: 147-101-3, +34.66uRECAP: Two straight days where we get absolutely kicked in the nuts by a bet. We had two plays in the GSW/ATL game, needing the Warriors to cover and the under to hit. If the Warriors get a stop on that final play of regulation, both of our bets hit; alas, they couldn’t get a stop, and we end up losing a whopping 2.59 units on the day. It was possibly our worst day of the NBA season, and I’m not happy about it whatsoever.
February 4, 2024You’re going to absolutely hate this play, but we’re rocking with Cade Cunningham and the Detroit Pistons to cover a basketball game today.
The Pistons are hosting the Orlando Magic in a day game in Detroit, with the Pistons coming in at an even 24-24 ATS this season. At home as the underdogs, they’re 12-11 this season ATS, and whether you want to believe it or not, they’re a much better team at home than on the road. Let’s dive in.
As the away team, the Magic are among the worst-scoring offenses in the league. They rank 27th in the league in per-game scoring at only 109 points per game on the road, and it’s an unfavorable matchup for them, as they are abysmal on any other team’s home court. And while their defense is still stellar (they rank seventh in the league in defense on the road), the Pistons are averaging 110 points per game at home. I’m not saying that this game is going to be even, but the Pistons should be able to keep pace.
Our Sharp AI has this game at a -6.5 projection in favor of the away team, giving us half a point of wiggle room in this game. As well, our Money Handles are heavily in favor of the Pistons, with 39% of the bets owning 96% of the money handle. That’s a difference of 57% and a textbook play on our methodology.
As well, as the away favorites, the Magic keep games close. On average, in the five games that they’ve been favored on the road, they’re only winning by an average of four points in those games. That’s obviously well below our threshold here in this game today, where we’re allowed to lose by six or less.
Especially if we look over their last five, the Pistons are shooting the ball pretty well, and have been efficient; they’re 8th in the league in FG%, and 2nd in the league in 3P percentage. Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey have been really solid as of late, and we’re going to ride them to keep this game close.
Most of you may be expecting a blowout; but then why is the line so close? The line tells the story, and the handles tell us to take the Pistons. They don’t have to win, they just have to keep it close. PICK: Detroit Pistons +7
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