NBA Bet of the Day | February 2, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 145-96-3, +37.34u
RECAP: We’ve hit two straight NBA of the Day bets and four of our last five altogether, raising our total back up over thirty-seven units on the year. If you stayed up to watch the NBA of the Day bet, it cashed rather sweat free, with almost 80 points being scored in the first quarter alone! We went 2-0 on our picks yesterday and it feels good to not see a negative sign in our tracker. Bigger slate today, let’s get it.

February 2, 2024

I am betting against the Portland Trail Blazers, who have been an absolute thorn in my side all season long. Them and the Toronto Raptors are the bane of my existence, but you can’t blame me for taking this bet. 

The Nuggets are an absolutely dominant home team, going 19-4 straight up at home; the Blazers are on the other side of history on this one, going a sad 6-20 away from home. Denver, on average, as a home favorite, wins by at least ten points, so we’re taking into account the Blazers being an absolute dumpster fire here to gain us the extra three points that we’re looking for. Portland loses by an average of 12 points on the road as an underdog, and so that’s something to take into account, as well.

The Money Handles are all over this play, with 42% of the betting handle on the home team; yet, on the money side of things, own 78% of the handle, good for a difference of 36%. That’s not the most we’ve ever seen, but we need a solid play tonight, and this one is so close to fitting the bill. Over their past ten games against each other, Denver wins ATS 70% of the time, and the Blazers have been an improving team, but this Nuggets team at home is a different beast. 

They’re scoring 119 points per game at home this season, while Blazers are allowing four more points than average as the road team. The Nuggets take efficient shots, and the Blazers rank dead last in the league in points scored on the road this season on average; they only score 106 points per game. If we were playing this game based on averages, then we’re absolutely in the clear. 

Over their last five, Denver has been a top-six defense in the league, and while they’re struggled to score the ball lately, the Nuggets could use this game as a nice bounce-back game to get back on track. 

I know the number is huge, but the Books have been getting absolutely cooked on the Sharp Report recently. The Blazers are on that side of the report, and so we have no choice but to fade, fade, fade. Take the Nuggets by thirteen. 

PICK:  Denver Nuggets -12.5

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