NBA Bet of the Day | February 13, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 155-105-3, +38.69u
RECAP: That’s four in a row here at NBA of the Day, and we’re on an absolute roll when it comes to our NBA plays. We had the under in the Boston/Miami game yesterday, and we hit it, but not without some help; Jimmy Butler got ruled out about an hour before the game, and then Miami players were dropping like flies throughout it. The total was no-sweat really in the end, and we are 7-3 in all of our last ten plays, which is really solid. Let’s keep building.

February 13, 2024

This is a team that has broken my heart time and time again this season, but we’re going to rely on them to beat an absolute juggernaut tonight at home. 

The Brooklyn Nets are hosting the Boston Celtics in what should be a great divisional matchup, but with a huge spread. I anticipate this game to be much closer than anticipated, and our money handles and Sharp AI both agree. Let’s dive into the numbers that we’re seeing. 

The Money Handles will be our first order of business, as it always is. We’re seeing only 38% of the bets come through on the Brooklyn side, while the money is more astute, with a huge 62% of the money coming in, giving us a percentage of 24%. While I don’t normally love to hammer bets this small, it follows our protocol to a T, and is even more encouraging when we look at our Sharp AI Projections. 

The projections have this game as a much closer +7 from the +9 that we’re getting, and while it predicts Boston to win, we’re seeing two points of wiggle room off of the current line that we’re getting. Some books are already at +8.5 as well, so grabbing the +9 is a steal of a point, and is there for security in case we push. 

And while we’ve seen Brooklyn sometimes struggle in this spot (they’re 6-9-2 ATS as a home underdog), their average margin of loss is six points - which falls well within the confines of our +9 pick here today. 

And let’s keep in mind too that Boston isn’t all sunshine and rainbows against the spread, either. They’re 9-12-2 ATS as the away favorite, and guess what their average margin of victory is? Seven points. We’re clear by two if everything happens by the book, and it definitely could on a night like tonight. 

Let’s take the home team by nine before the line begins to creep back. As an underdog in general, Brooklyn is averaging losing by five points - and that’s right where we want them. Brooklyn might not win, but we just need them to keep it close.

PICK: Brooklyn Nets +9

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