Statsational Coppa Italia/Copa del Rey January 19, 2023

John Alesia
John Alesia
As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my models for upcoming Soccer matchups as often as possible. Because of the manual work, I will try and stay in the big leagues. On slow days I will add in some of the smaller leagues worldwide.

Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line.

The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With soccer (and tennis), I tend to be slightly leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the team we show to have an edge.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a great edge losing often.

I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line on matches where we see an edge but the line is very high. The reason for this is a high unlikelihood that the big dog wins the match,
but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.

Today's lines are taken from Draftkings

January 19

Teams

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Atalanta

-250

-223

-2%

Spezia

650

614

1%

Draw

400

488

-3%

Teams

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Lazio

100

-156

11%

Bologna

320

426

-5%

Draw

235

400

-10%

Teams

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Juventus

-165

-213

6%

Monza Brianza

500

614

-3%

Draw

280

456

-8%

Teams

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Ceuta

1600

1567

0%

Barcelona

-1400

-669

-6%

Draw

900

1329

-3%

Teams

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Villarreal

170

223

-6%

Real Madrid

135

150

-3%

Draw

240

245

0%