EURO 2024 BEST PICKS FOR JUNE 29, 2024

It's been a fantastic run over the last three slates, and we're looking to extend our 5-0 streak on Saturday. My team, Italy, will face Switzerland; we all know Italians thrive on drama. My 10-year-old daughter is particularly excited about the game, and I hope Italy progresses to keep her spirits high.

Switzerland pulled off a shocking result against Germany, setting the stage for the Germans to redeem themselves against a Denmark team that has underwhelmed so far. Germany was on the brink of letting Switzerland top Group A, but a miracle equalizer in extra time secured them seven points from a possible nine. Despite this, Germany dominated all three group games on expected goals and this suggests they should be confident heading into Saturday’s match.

Denmark, semi-finalists in Euro 2020, has not reached those heights in Germany so far. Their goalless draw against Serbia means they’ve managed just two goals in three games. Kasper Hjulmand’s team has been solid defensively but hasn’t faced a formidable attack yet. The Germans, with their high-scoring ability, may expose defensive weaknesses that Slovenia, England, and Serbia couldn’t.

Offensively, Denmark has struggled during the group stage and they've relied heavily on Christian Eriksen, who has taken 10 shots, while strikers Jonas Wind and Rasmus Hojlund have combined for just seven shots. Alarmingly, a high number of Denmark's shots have come from outside the box. In this match, Denmark will likely sit deep and look to counterattack, but they’ve had zero counterattacking shots in this tournament so far.

Defensively, Denmark has been strong, conceding only 2.3 expected goals in their three group matches and holding England to just 0.8 expected goals. However, they will be without Hjulmand, one of their best midfielders, which means Christian Norgaard is likely to step in for a more defensive approach. This setup indicates a slow-paced match where Germany controls possession, but Denmark's offense may struggle to pose a significant threat.

Given these factors, betting on both teams not to score at -125 is a prudent choice. Germany's solid attack and Denmark's lackluster offensive performance make this a likely outcome.

Betting Recommendation: Both teams to score: No (-125). Germany’s dominant expected goals metrics and Denmark’s offensive struggles set the stage for a match where Denmark is unlikely to find the net.