EURO 2024 BEST PICKS FOR JUNE 30, 2024

As we continue our hot streak of 6-0 in Euro 2024, today's slate of games doesn't offer much value, and we've seen minimal line movement. The general expectation is for easy wins from both England and Spain, with significant support from square money. However, with little to no line shifts, we need to look closely at where the true value lies.

For today, I'll stick with the data and opt for the under in the England game. Bet365 offers the under 2.5 at -138, which is quite reasonable compared to other sportsbooks.

England vs. Slovakia: Expecting a Low-Scoring Affair

England fans have been frustrated with their team performances so far at Euro 2024. Bettors should not anticipate much excitement when England meets Slovakia. England managed to score just twice across their three group games, and their struggle to break down defenses will likely be exploited by Slovakia's head coach, Francesco Calzona.

Slovakia qualified third in a tightly contested Group E, where all four teams finished with 4 points. Despite being heavy underdogs, Slovakia is unlikely to be overwhelmed by England. The Sokoli are expected to adopt a defensive stance, aiming to frustrate England, leading to a probable low-scoring encounter.

Even with their offensive challenges, England has been the best defensive team in the tournament. They excel at preventing opponents from creating chances through transitions or set pieces, which are Slovakia’s primary methods of attack.

Slovakia will likely employ the same strategy that Denmark, Serbia, and Slovenia used against England: sit deep, deny space through the middle, and force England to try and beat them from wide areas.

Even if England takes the lead, they have shown under Southgate that they will adopt a conservative approach to protect their advantage. This makes a low-event match highly probable.

Betting Recommendation: Under 2.5 Goals (-138 at Bet365). Given England's defensive solidity and Slovakia's expected defensive setup, a low-scoring match is the most likely outcome.

Conclusion

Today's match between England and Slovakia is shaping up to be a tactical, low-scoring battle. England's defensive prowess combined with Slovakia's likely strategy to sit deep and frustrate their opponents points towards a low-event game. Betting on under 2.5 goals at -138 provides good value, reflecting the anticipated cautious approach from both sides. Let's continue our winning streak by focusing on this strategic bet.