Anthony P Soccer Picks October 2, 2023

My last soccer pick was on August 21st when Milan walked into Bologna and destroyed them. I wish they would all be easy winners like that.

Both these clubs have had their fair share of highs and lows, but from a betting standpoint, the scales might tilt slightly in favor of the Blues. Let's break it down.

Chelsea's Unwavering Legacy: The Blues might be facing some stormy weather, but they've historically had Fulham's number. Before Fulham's recent victory, Chelsea held an impressive 21-match undefeated streak against the Cottagers. The Blues, fresh off a clean sheet against Brighton, are poised to carry that momentum into this duel. However, it's essential to note that Chelsea's recent form has been patchy. Their 1-0 loss to Everton at Stamford Bridge, while disappointing, doesn't paint the full picture, as the xG metrics suggest they were the better side. Currently, they are 15th in the EPL table, but when the expected goals metric comes into play, they jump to 10th. So, while their start may resemble the 1978 season's tumultuous beginnings, there's more to the Blues than what meets the eye.

Fulham's Subtle Surge: The Cottagers, on the other hand, have been showing signs of life. Their recent 0-0 draw against Crystal Palace was less than inspiring in terms of xG, but defensively, they've been sound, as evidenced by their third clean sheet of the season. They may sit 11th in the table, but the xG metrics are less kind, placing them at 18th. They've had a mixed bag of results at home, with a commendable victory against the newly promoted Luton City and a sobering 3-0 loss to Brentford. The Regression Gods seem to have both these teams on their radar, and it will be interesting to see how this clash pans out.

The Coaching Conundrum: Mauricio Pochettino, Chelsea's coach, seems to be in a bit of a bind. With the team's slow start and the recent loss to Aston Villa, pressures are mounting. His selections, further complicated by a growing injury list, will be critical in this match. With Nicolas Jackson and Malo Gusto sidelined due to suspensions, Chelsea might find themselves in a tactical quandary.

On the flip side, Fulham has been reasonably consistent, and given Chelsea's current form, they might fancy their chances in this London derby. With only three points separating them, the stakes are high.

Bottom Line: Chelsea might be the traditional heavyweights, but Fulham isn't a pushover. The Blues need to find their killer instinct, while Fulham should capitalize on their defensive solidity. From a betting lens, while the smart money might be on Chelsea, don't be surprised if the Cottagers snag a point but my money is on the Blues to get the win today!

Good luck!

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