Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps May 17, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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Sharps are furious this morning. They had the Dodgers going under 8.5 and a 2-run HR from Peralta in the top of the 9th pushed the scores to 9 runs and we know the rest...

Are we ready for round 2 in the NHL and NBA? How impressive was Luka in that game 7? We have some crazy matchups in the NHL. I'm looking for the Avs to dominate the Blues also but it won't be as easy as the Preds. The Avs own the Blues in the last 10 games going 7-3, scoring on average 4 GF/F. We should expect another high-scoring series and look for the Avs to light up Binnington if he starts the series.

The Lighting struggled vs the type of game the Leafs play and the Panthers play similar hockey however they are better. The Lighting will be tired and Point is out in the first game. I like the Panthers to take this series in 6. Carolina and Calgary should also make it to the next round. The Rangers can upset the Canes, they showed that they can win on the road in the playoffs while the Canes couldn't be as dominant in Boston.

There is no lopsided sharp money on the Tuesday games however the sharp report is showing sharp money on the total in the Carolina game. As for the Florida game, there is heavy interest on the over and under 6.5 and 7. Some sharps are betting the over and others the under. Some US markets have the total at 7 while the market makers are still set at 6.5 with juice between -130 and -135. My lean is on the over so take the 6.5 if you like it. Florida is a scoring machine at home and it didn't change during the playoff. The Lighting is allowing the second-highest GA in the playoffs and will be missing an important 2-way player.

UPDATE: most of the books that had the total at 7 goals are dropping to 6.5 to match market makers and they also received sharp interest on the under as per the sharp report updated this morning.

I will update the NHL section in the normal if I see important moves overnight.

Game 1 between the Celtics and the Heat tips off at 830 pm EST. The Celtics are -170 favourites to win this series and they start on the road. That line speaks volume but is fair. The book said the Celtics would have been -240 if they started the series at home so I still find some value in Boston. I expect a very low-scoring series so don't be surprised to see the sharps hammer the under in the first couple of games. It's the case in game 1 where the sharps hit the under 206.5 and had the books adjust the total to 204. Boston has the #1 aDRTG (adj. defensive rating) Miami is #4. During the playoffs they and the #1 and #2 aDRTG. If we take a quick look at the side, the line opened at -2 for the Heat and moved to -2.5 yesterday night. Since then it's been heavy sharp betting on the Celtics pushing the line down to +1.5 while 69% of the handle is on the Heat.

In the MLB we are still missing lines for 10 games. I received an early report but I don't have enough data to confirm the level of sharp interest. The Giants moved up 20 pts on low bet limits (from -145 to -165) and Seattle went from +134 to +114, I will update MLB at my next update.

UPDATE: A small number of sharps are on the Giants as per yesterday's info however in the Seattle game we have sharps on both sides. The sharp report morning edition has 5 games, 4 totals and 1 side. The under 7 in Tampa Bay is one in that they took a decent position but I'm surprised it didn't drop to 6.5. Looking further into this, the handle is at 57% on the over therefore the books might be comfortable with this. The total went from 7 -105 to -120 and the max bet limit is still low at 3k. The Tiger's offense is awful and almost last in wRC+ however above average versus LHP. The pitching match-up also supports the under along with the trends.


Good luck today

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