Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps Mars 1, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

It was a crazy night in the NBA but a little more stable in the NHL. The Sharps were right about the Leafs and Bruins. Marchand suited for the game therefore I didn't bet on the Kings. The Whale at the book was on Boston's team total of over 2.5, which was a no-sweat bet for him. Sharps were also right on the over in OKC. It looked like OKC was able to slow down the pace in the second quarter but it was too much for them.

NEW JERSEY DEVILS

There hasn't been much movement in the NHL overnight and this morning. The Devils played last night and totally dominated the Canucks. The Devils are 1-7 in their last 8 when playing with no rest. Columbus has been playing some great hockey however hit a wall last 2 games versus the Pens and Canes. Columbus is definitely not known for their defense this year ranking at the bottom of the league however offensively they are near the top 10 and they will face one of the worst defensive teams in the league. The BJ's won't have to worry about the Devils special teams since they are dead last on the PP on the road. Lastly, Columbus is 8-1-1 in the last 10 games vs New Jersey and has allowed an average of 1.70 GA/G. I understand Jersey's offense has been lit lately and Columbus's defense allows close to 3.5 GA/G but this is a bad stop for Devils versus a team that challenged the Pens for a full 60 minutes. Market makers opened the Blue Jackets a -150 favourite and the sharps found value on the Devils and pushed the line down to -123. The line moved back up since then. My model also has value on the Devils but I don't buy it. I don't support the sharps on this play.

TORONTO RAPTORS

The Raptors gave a beating to the Nets yesterday and they won't even be able to get over it since they are back at it tonight however in Toronto this time. Toronto does very well on no rest going 9-3 ATS for the season with Brooklyn doing very poorly going 2-8 SU and 2-7-1 ATS. We all know the Nets are crippled with injuries and the Raports might be getting back Anunoby and Vanvleet. The books did a massive adjustment on this line this morning. There was definitely sharp money that poured on the Raptors however it's also possible they got news that VV and Anunoby are for sure playing. The Market makers opened the Raports a 4 point favourite yesterday and this morning an adjustment was made at -8. The line did reach -9 at certain books. So, you might have found it weird that the Raptors line would open at the same number as of yesterday in Brooklyn however it's normal, it seems books shave about 2 to 3 pts on teams on a back to back. What is weird here is that the same should apply for the Nets but it didn't. Anyway, I have this game at -4 w/o VV and Anunoby and there is value on the Nets at the current number but I am not interested in this game.

DALLAS MAVERICKS

My god the Lakers suck!!! After that brutal loss to Portland, I spent some time on Twitter reading some comments and they were brutal. Just like the Habs fans lashing out but 100x worst. In the meantime, the Mavs had a historical 4th quarter in Golden State and won straight up. If you think the Lakers were terrible vs Portland and the Clippers, wait until they face the #2 defense on the road and the 5th best team in points allowed per 100 possessions. Do we have a prop on how many turnovers the Lakers will have tonight? LA Lakers are 5-2 ATS in it's last 7 games when playing at home against Dallas and 6-4 ATS in their last 10 but these teams are going in opposite directions. The Mavs are 7-3 last 10 overall and 8-2 ATS while the Lakers are 3-7 SU and 5-5 ATS. The Lakers shot under 42% from the field in back-to-back games while Dallas topped 50%+ in 2 of their last 3 games. Betonline opened the Mavs a -3.5 favourite yesterday afternoon. The line flew to -5.5 in early trading and we saw some buyback on the Lakers late afternoon dropping the line down to -4. Overnight the line jumped from -4 to -5.5 and even hit -6. My model has this line at -4 therefore we don't have much value on the Mavs.


Good luck today

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