Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps March 9, 2022
Anthony P
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.
Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.
Sharp had a rough night yesterday. Vegas was very disappointing and couldn't generate any offense in Philadelphia. They made it up with Ottawa who was a huge dog in a decent spot. Took balls to take Ottawa but sharps are sharps. Charlotte was a solid model play and sharps did support it whoever the Nets came on top! It's a small NHL slate and no sharp indication on the 2 games. The focus will be on the NBA.
ATLANTA HAWKS
The red-hot Bucks have won 5 straight and covered 4 out of their last 5 games. Betonline opened the number at -7 and the sharps jumped on Atlanta pushing the line down all the way to -4.5. Some money came back on the Bucks and it has settled around -5 and -5.5. The Bucks own about 75% of the handle this morning. I can personally see this line go back up with public interest. Atlanta might be 1-9 straight in their 10 playing in Milwaukee however they are 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee. My NBA model had the Bucks favoured by 3.5 pts thus I support the sharps on Atlanta however I'm having a hard time supporting the 4th worst adj defensive rating Hawks which are also terrible on the road versus a smoking hot Bucks team with the 5th best adj offensive ranting. DETROIT PISTONS
It was interesting of seeing SugarHouse and Fandual open this line before 5dimes or Betonline. Both posted a -6.5 for the Bulls yesterday however immediately adjusted to -6 when 5dimes posted -6 and again adjusted when Betonline opened at -5. Both Sugarhouse and Fanduel seem to have received sharp action on the Pistons. Our coach Drumheller is also on the Pistons at +5.5. Most of the sharp books have posted their lines early this morning and bet limits are still low and I am not seeing much action this early. Detroit is 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 while Chicago has been really bad losing their last 5 and going 0-5 ATS and 3-10 straight last 13 games on the road. Will a game versus the Pistons turn this around for the Bulls? The Bulls are 10-0 last 10 games versus Detroit and 9-0-1 ATS. My NBA model has the Bulls at -4 thus the +6.5 for the Piston had value. The squares might get behind the Bulls and if this line goes closer to +7 for the Pistons I will be jumping on it. *** The over in Milwaukee just got hit by the sharps pushing it 3 pts over its opening, now set at 239.5 and some books are even posting 240.Sharps are also taking a position on low max bet limits on the over in Minnesota and the under between the Wizards and Clippers. Good luck today
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