Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps March 4, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

The Bruins took care of Vegas. As for the Canes, well they forgot to show up and got blanked in Washington therefore the over failed for the sharps. In the NBA, I didn't fully agree on the under in Brooklyn however my NBA model and sharps liked it, the game went under 3 pts from its closing total. The sharps had a decent day.


LA KINGS

Featured on the sharp report this morning, the Kings are the only play where I see sharps taking interest since yesterday afternoon. Sharps have hit this line from -138 and -155. Both teams are having a great 7-3 run however the Kings are been put back on earth with back to back losses and a bad one vs Boston losing 7-0. Looking forward in this game is the 5th best defense on the road vs the 8th best offense at home. To note is that LA's defense has regressed last 5 games allowing 3.20 GA/G versus their 2.82 GA/G average for the season. Columbus allows the most shots per game with an average of 35.7 SA/G while the Kings are just behind the Panthers and Flames with an average of 35.4 SF/G. My NHL model is showing a +14% EV on the Blue Jackets and does not agree with the sharp interest.


PITTSBURGH PENGUINS

Both the Pens and Canes are on back to back games and will be playing on no rest. Both had to travel overnight and both will be suiting up their backup goalies. The Pens are 4-2 on no rest and 4-1 after a win, the Canes are 4-3-1 on no rest and 1-1 after a loss. Both teams had difficult matchups last night and it won't get easier tonight. Desmith is 3-1 in his last 4 games and has been the better goalie since Raatan has lost 2 of his last 3 and allowed 4 goals twice in those 2 losses. This will be a good game nontheless since both team are very close in the standings, however difficult to handicap and measure the tiredness level, especially for the Canes. We already know they are on a back to back but this will also be their 3rd game in 4 nights, in which they are 20-6 last 26 games and 4th game in 6 nights where they are 15-6 in their last 21 games. Market makers opened the Canes a -150 favourite, sharp saw value on the Pens at +131. Max bet limits are fully opened for this game therefore the book feels the line properly adjusted. My NHL model shows a ton of value on the Canes at the current number and doesn't agree with the sharps. If it wasn't for the fatigue factor for the Canes, they would have been my pick.

PHILADELPHIA 76ers

The 76ers will be very popular until the Harden frenzy goes away or at least cools off a little. What is happening with the Cavs? They are 0-5 ATS last 5 games, they lost 4 of 5 straight up, lost to ATL, DET, MIN and got blown out by Charlotte. They allowed 124 points to Atlanta, 127 to Minnesota and 119 to Charlotte and they haven't looked like the 4th best adj defensive rating team in the league. The 76ers on the other hand are in another world right now and have won their last 3 games by a margin of 20 pts per game. My NBA model has the 76ers favourite by 5 pts and the line opened at 5.5. Without Harden, my projections would have been closer to a -1. The line is now at -7.5 and it's getting a little inflated. We still need to respect this Cleveland defense however it seems that the 76ers are unstoppable right now.

Good luck today

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