Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps March 3, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

Sharps cleaned up last night. Little luck on the Rangers who blew a 2-0 lead however had a solid 3rd period for the win. The Pacer came back in the 4th to force OT and took care of Orlando. The Pelicans cruised to a 30 pt win just as we expected. Perfect 3-0. It's a busy day in both the NHL and the NBA. Let's take a look at the early interest from the sharps.


BOSTON BRUINS

The Bruins will try and end this 5 game road trip with a win. They are 3-1 with their only loss coming to Anaheim on a b2b situation. Adding to Stone's injury, Pacioretty missed the last 2 games and it's unclear if he will be playing tonight. That is the equivalent of removing Pasta and Marchand for the Bruins... or close. Vegas is barely averaging 2.4 GF/G and this is 0.5 GF/G less from their season mean and 1 GF/G less than the last 2 seasons. Tonight, Vegas will face the #1 road defense which has allowed 2.1 GA/G in their last 10 games. The Bruins can thank Swayman for that, he's been amazing last 10 games with a 0.942 SV%. Market makers opened the Golden Knights a -128 favourites and sharps jumped on the Bruins and the +116. Sharps continued to support Boston up to -113. The bet limits are halfway open and 62% of the handle is on the Bruins. As per my NHL betting model, there was value on the Bruins and the current number matches my projections.

CAROLINA VS WASHINGTON OVER

Featured on the Sharp report early this morning, the sharps jumped on the 5.5 in mid-afternoon yesterday forcing the book to move up the total to 6. The handle on the over/under is 50/50 therefore the money that came on the over is from respected bettors. The Canes average 3.47 goals per game and the Caps 3.16 putting both teams in the top 10 in scoring. The Canes have a net advantage in defense ranking top 3 overall and have similar home and away splits. The Canes have been solid on the PK however need to be careful with the Caps PP which picked up steam in the last 5 games moving up to 24% from its 16% season average and should help scoring tonight. The Caps over is 4-0 in the last 4 games when they are home underdogs and the Canes over is 6-1 in their last 7 road games. My NHL model has the total projected at 6.24 and agrees with the value when it was at 5.5

MIAMI VS BROOKLYN TOTAL

Also featured on the sharp report, sharps are taking a position on the under in this game. It's hard to believe when taking a look at 122 pts per game that the Nets have been allowing in their last 5 games. Great news for the Nets, Drummond and Durant are both probable for tonight's game and this will definitely help their defensive play. The Heat rank 9th in points allowed per 100 possessions and we can always expect a solid defensive game from them however they allowed 120 to the Bucks yesterday, which they average 106 as an underdog. They are also on a b2b and they are 3-7 on no rest and the over is 9-1. I might not fully agree with the under but my NBA model has this game at 214 and it supports the sharp's interest.


Good luck today

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