Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps March 2, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

The Sharps failed with the Devils. For those that read yesterday's edition, you knew how strong I was on Columbus. Sharp also failed with the Raptors, Vanvleet and Anunoby didn't play and the line movement didn't make much sense and value was on the Nets. The Sharps did get Dallas right and I hope none of you had them at -5.5


NY RANGERS

Two very balanced teams are facing off tonight in the big apple. The Rangers have a top 10 defense at home while the Blues have a top 10 defensive squad on the road. Special teams balance themselves off also with the Rangers having a top 3 PP at home vs a top 5 PK on the road for the blues. The Blues are 7-2-1 in their last 10 and 4-0-1 on the road L5 games. The Rangers have lost a little momentum and lost 2 straight on b2b games on Saturday and Sunday. The Rangers are 6th in GA/60 and this is mostly because of Shesterkin who has by far the best GSAA at 32.76. Market makers opened the Blue a -123 favourite yesterday morning and sharp interest started flooding on the Rangers not too long after opening and was consistent since then pushing the line to -115 for the Rangers. My NHL model has the Blue projected at -113, there is no value on this game.

INDIANA PACERS

The Pacers were also on the sharp report this morning. They present one of the best values on the NBA model where they are favoured by 2.5 pts. The value thinned out from the +2 this morning but I don't like the Pacers that much. Both teams met 2 days ago and Orlando gave them a 16 pt beating. There is not much to write about these teams that rank in the bottom 10 in defensive metrics. My model and sharps are on Indiana however I don't agree. Orlando just gave them a beating, Pacers are BAD on the road, Duarte and Stephenson are both questionable tonight and Orlando is carrying more momentum coming into this game. Market makers opened the Magic a 2 pt favourite yesterday afternoon and sharps waited for the bet limits to increase to take a position. This morning they made their move and the book adjusted the line to a pickem. The current handle is at 80% on the Pacers and the book continued moving the line and settled at -1 for the Pacers since 930am this morning.

NEW ORLEANS PELICANS

McCollum has been a beast for the Pelicans and don't let the previous games between these 2 this season fool you. The Pelicans were crippled in injuries and they are much healthier this time around. The Pelicans are coming into this game after beating Phoenix by 15 and the Slakers (Lakers) by 28. The Kings just snapped a 4 game losing streak by dismantling OKC. Sacramento has the second-worst adj defensive rating in the league, meaning they allow the second-most points per 100 possessions. With McCollum firing all cylinders, there is a lot to like here. Betonline, a market maker, undervalued the Pelicans and opened the line at -3.5 yesterday afternoon. Within 30 minutes, the overwhelming sharp interest, still on low bet limits pushed the line to -5. In the meantime, 5dimes opened the game at -4.5 and automatically adjusted to -5 also. Money and interest kept on coming on the Pelicans this morning and the line flirted with -6.5 for about an hour and then dropped back to -6. My model has the Pelicans at -6 and even though there is no more value on this line I still like them tonight.



Good luck today

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