Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps February 28 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

And we are back for another week of the overnight night. I hope you guys had a great weekend and made some money. Today we have a small NHL slate but there was movement on all 3 games. We will also review some NBA.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

Featured on the sharp report this morning, the Leafs were an early target by the sharps yesterday morning and money just kept coming in on them pushing the book the adjust the line from +110 to -130. My NHL model supports the sharp interest and I have the Leafs with an implied win % of 56.52% which translates to a -130 moneyline. This has nothing to do with the 10-7 win over Detroit on the weekend. The Caps are going thru a bad stretch scoring 1 goal in 3 of their last 5. Toronto is 3-11 in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Washington and the Caps are 7-3 in the last H2H meetings. Historically, the Caps have dominated H2H matchups but lately, they've been brutal especially at home going 0-5 in the last 5 games. The Leafs own the #1 offense on the road and will face the 12th worst home defense which has allowed the opponent to control puck possession 12% more in the last month.

BOSTON BRUINS

The Kings have been playing lots of hockey as of late and this will be their 4th game in 6 days and 6th game in 10 days. They are 5-0 in their last 5 and their biggest challenge was versus Vegas. They beat Arizona twice, a struggling Anaheim and an Islanders team that can't beat anyone on the road. The Bruins are also pretty hot since their win in Ottawa. They are a solid 26-11-1 when favourite and 4-1-1 in their last 6 on the road. Marchand is questionable however based on the line movement we can assume that he is playing. There is value on Kings at the current number and it qualified for a model play however if Marchand is out the Kings will turn into a tier 1 for VIPs. Currently, at the book, I only see a set of sharps on the Bruins but this line is moving up and down since yesterday morning. Sharps hit the Bruins at -108 and pushed the line as high as -139 however in the last hours the handle is shifting on the Kings and the line dropped to -120. Once again, it's important to follow the status of Marchand.

Sacramento / Oklahoma City over

It's really surprising seeing this total open this high and seeing sharp interest on the over when we consider OKC being one of the worst offensive teams in the league with the worst ajd. offensive rating. Sacramento is awful defensively and are just behind the Rockets however, they are top 10 in average pace and possessions per 48 minutes. So basically it's one of the worst offensive teams versus one of the worst defensive teams. Oddly enough, OKC just played 4 straight overs and hit 50% from the field vs the Knicks, 47% vs PHO and 49.5% vs Indiana. Apart from PHO, we can assume that OKC can score vs shitty defensive teams since Indiana is the 5th worst in defensive metrics while the Knicks are in the middle of the pack. This is going to be an ugly game. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oklahoma City's last 8 games when playing at home against Sacramento and my model has this game set at 219 points. Market makers opened this total at 224.5 this morning and sharps jumped on the over and it's currently at 228.5. 61% of the handle is on the over and 85% of the tickets are on the same side. The Thunders is 8th in adj defensive ratings and if they can slow down the pace of the game this game will not go over. I'm staying away.

Good luck today

Join Discord and ask @anthony p any questions you have on other games


Then, become a VIP member to get all the winning bets from our pros

🚨USE CODE TONY FOR 10% OFF🚨