Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps February 25 2022

3 years ago

Anthony P

While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

Sharps were right on the over in OKC and the over trends continue between these two teams. The Leafs and Wild played a very tight game and puck control was 50/50, the Leafs came on top and the sharps were also right on this game. The model was strong on the Devils in terms of value, I believe none of us ever considered entertaining a bet on the Devils however one of our VIPs added them in a parlay for an awesome payout.

With the NBA back in action, we immediately saw the handle switch back to the NBA and volume on the NHL normalized. Overnight and this morning I noticed much fewer swings in the NHL however the sharps did take some early positions and we will look at a few of them.

New Jersey Devils

Yes, the Devils pull one hell of an upset last night crushing the Pens as a huge road underdog. There is not much to get excited about this game versus 2 teams that have almost identical records and poor overall offensive and defensive metrics. The Hawks are 0-5-1 in their L6 at home, 2-10 in their last 12 at home and 3-11 SU in their last 14 games overall. The Devils are 3-7 in their 10 and 1-10 SU in their last 11 games played on a Friday when playing on the road. Lastly, the Devils are playing on no rest where they are 2-5-0-2 for the season. Both teams can't stop the puck going in the net allowing close to over 3.5 GA/G this season. The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Jersey's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago and this trend should continue based on their defensive metric and the over the total cashing at a 67% rate on the second game of a b2b for New Jersey. Market makers opened Chicago a -143 this morning and sharps jumped on the Devils obliging the book to adjust the line to -130. The Devils own 70% of the handle and 66% of the tickets. My model agrees with the value on the Devils and projected the Hawks at -115

LA KINGS

Winners of their last 3 on the road, the Kings will face the Ducks in their last road trip game before heading back home overnight to face the Islanders tomorrow. The Ducks won back-to-back games vs Vancouver and San Jose and will now face the 7th best road defense in the league. Anaheim struggles with western conference opponents going 2-10 in the last 12 games. The Ducks will need to limit the Kings SOG volume if they want a chance to win this game. The Kings bombard opponents with an average of 35 SOG per game putting them 3rd in SOG per game while the Ducks give the 7th most SOG/G and in their last 4 games they gave up 43, 20, 41 and 42. Gibson is projected to start and we covered his numbers this week, he's not having a good stretch. My model is very strong on the Kings and still showing +6.37 EV. I've just made them an official VIP pick.

LA LAKERS

We jumped on the Lakers at a PK last night knowing that this line would be moving based on my NBA projections. Both teams have major injuries and tonight it's all about a healthy Lebron that can win this game by himself. Lakers are 3-7 L10 and 6-4 ATS however they've been having most of their success at home where they won 7 of their last 10 and they are 5-2 ATS in their last 7. Also, the Lakers love the Friday night spotlight going 30-12 SU in their last 42 Friday night games and 20-8 L28 home games. The Clippers have been dominating this rivalry going 26-6 SU in their last 32 games versus the Lakers however tonight the firepower held by the Lakers should be too much for the Clippers. My NBA model projected the Lakers a 3 pt favourite while market makers opened this game at a pickem and are still keeping the max met limits low showing signs are discomfort on pricing this game properly. The Clippers own 75% of the tickets while the handle is on the Lakers side at 66% which we can conclude square interest in the Clippers and sharp interest in the Lakers.

Here is a quick look at the NBA Betting model, If you have any questions jump into our discord server and don't hesitate to ask me any questions.