Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps February 24 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

I am glad that the NBA is back. Most of the sharps have been quiet however the ones that are active seem to not agree on many games. Yesterday they were wrong on the Oilers and Arizona however both games were close and they weren't bad picks. They got Providence right but they needed overtime and it was a sweat.

PHOENIX VS OKLAHOMA CITY OVER

This is one of the games that sharps all agree on the over. The Suns rank 4th in adj. offensive rating while OKC ranks 8th in adj. defensive rating. Then why the interest on the over? Especially that OKC is one of the worst offensive teams. Don't we expect a slow start to the second from most of the teams? Trends are very strong on the over, especially when playing in OKC, the over is 15-3 in the last 18 and 17-4 in the last 21 games played in OKC. OKC was not able to score over 100 pts vs above-average defensive teams like PHI and TOR and barely scored over 100 vs the Bulls which are the 7th worst team in points allowed per 100 possessions. The Suns will lock you down and in terms of points allowed per 100 possessions, they are 4th and OKC should not be able to score over 100 pts. My NBA total has this total set at 210. The tickets and handle are all on the over and the sharp took their position at 213 and 213.5. I don't agree with the sharp interest in this game.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

This should be another solid game to watch. Both teams are a little insecure going into this game. The Leafs got embarrassed by Montreal just to lose the next night in Columbus. The Wild came into Ottawa flying and they hit a brick wall losing 4-2. Both the Leafs and Wild have top-tier offenses and rank in 10 in defensive and special teams metrics. Minnesota is still carrying momentum in this game going 12-5 SU in their last 17 while there are some concerns in Leaf's nation going 2-5 SU in their last 7 and they won't be without Muzzin tonight. The only positive thing for the Leafs is that they've been shooting a shit load in the last 3 games averaging close to 40 SOG per game and the Wild have been allowing close to 35 SOG/A in their last 3. Kahkonen will be very busy tonight however he's 8-1-1 last 10 games with an excellent SV% of .930.... he's should be your GPP goalie tonight... just saying. Campbell is 6-3-1 in his last 10 however he's been terrible at stopping the puck and has an SV% of .886 in that span. Market makers opened the Leafs a -130 favourite and on low limits sharps jumped on it and pushed the number to -150. The overall handle is on the Wild while the tickets are a 50/50 split. My NHL model has this game at -139, there was not much value at the opening and at the current number it's a little inflated for the Leafs.

Also, as you can see, there is value in the Devils. Doesn't mean they will win, it means my model grades them higher than the market makers. I rarely tail these plays because books love to inflate favourites, even if there is value on the Devils, doesn't mean it's a good bet.

In Florida, we expect a blowout. We already placed a wager on the over 6.5 last night knowing that this total would move to 7 based on the model's projections.

The Islanders are getting more interest again, they opened a -105 and the line moved to -125.

In the NBA, Boston went from -4.5 to -7.5. Smart is probable while the Nets are still missing their key player. My model still finds value on the Nets.

I'm starting to see some interest on the over in Minnesota. A high-scoring game is expected between the 2nd and 8th teams in high pace of play and possessions per game.

Good luck today

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