Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps February 23 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

What a wild night it was in the NHL. The Panthers, Leafs and Wild all lose while being huge favourites! That's hockey folks. Sharps were wrong on the Wild however right on the Ducks. NBA is back tomorrow. Let's take a look at some NHL and CBB.

Edmonton Oilers

Tampa hasn't played since February 15th and they've only played 4 games in February. The Oilers lost their last game to the Wild but previously put up 5 straight wins and received solid support in goals allowing under 2 GA/P in their last 5. Betonline opened Tampa a -225 favourite yesterday and the number stayed stable until this morning where sharps hit the Oilers at +201. The handle is now 50/50 and the book moved the line to +182. My betting model supports the sharp interest. Won't be an easy game for the Oilers, they don't have much success in Tampa going  0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay and 1-10 in their last 11. TB is 6-1-0-1 with 3+ days rest however I still believe this is a great spot for the Oilers that will face a Lightning team that has barely played in February.

Arizona Coyotes

Yes, I'm also surprised. Sharps have been slamming them from +240 to +190. Once again my model agrees with sharp interest, the projection is at -177. The Kings are on a 3-day rest and haven't done well going 1-4 in that situation. It's difficult to support a Coyotes team that is 6-22 in their last 28 at home. Th eKings are 6-0-2 on their last 8 on the road and they are buyers going into the March trading deadline. The Coyotes are dead last in offensive and defensive metrics, I get it that my model is screaming value on Arizona but I won't personally be betting this game. The Sharp interest is obvious, 70% of the handle is on the Kings however the line dropped 40pts.

Providence Friars

Market makers opened the Friars a 1 pt favourites yesterday afternoon. Steady money on the Friars pushed the number a little higher until sharps hit the -1.5 overnight. Providence currently owns 87% of the handle, 80% of the tickets and this is by far the most wagered CBB as far this morning. I personally have this game projected at -3 therefore there is not much value at the current number. Providence won so many close games that we would think that their luck will run out soon but I don't think it will happen tonight versus a Xavier team that has been struggling lately losing 4 out of the last 5 games and playing some poor defense. Providence is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Xavier and I believe they will take care of business tonight.

Good luck today

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