Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps February 21 2022

3 years ago

Anthony P

While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

And we are back for another crazy week of the Overnight Grind. This edition is a little late today and I apologize. We have an early state in the NHL and our focus will for sure be allocated there today.

COLORADO AVALANCHE

I will start by saying that Colorado only lost 3 games since mid-December and like some of our VIPs said... The Avs never lose. They did get a scare in Buffalo Saturday but that will happen from time to time. If anyone is bored today, please let me know when was the last time that Boston won a game at home vs the Avs. Colorado is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Boston and they are 8--1-1 in their last 10. Boston hasn't put up b2b wins in close to a month, they are 0-4 following a win and have lost b2b games following a win since Feb1. Marchand is still out and the Bruins scored only 7 goals without him in their last 5 games and it won't get easy getting goals by Kuemper today. He's been lights out with an SV% of 0.949 and GA of 1.5 in his last 10 games. I'm not sure what market makers were thinking of opening this game at -135 for Colorado. Within the first 30 minutes, at low limits, the number was adjusted to -170. My NHL model has Colorado a -182 favourite with an implied winning % of 64.5%. I agree with the sharp interest in this game.

CALGARY FLAMES

The Flames are one of the hottest teams in the NHL and rank #1 in GA/GP this season and their offense has been on fire in the last 5 games scoring ~ 4.8 GF/G. Markstrom is 3rd in GSAA (Goals Saved Above Average) and has been a major part of the Flames success. This rivalry usually sets up for a tight match-up and 6 of the last 7 games in Calgary were decided by 1 goal. The Jets are inconsistent and that is the concern here. They played great versus Minnesota and Nashville just to lay an egg versus Chicago, Philly and Vancouver. If the powerplay starts clicking for the Flames they can easily become a top 5 contender. In the last 10 games, they are 5th in GF, 2nd in GA and 2nd in the PK. Betonline opened this line at -173 while my model has it at -200. Sharp interest pushed the Flames to -220. Rivalries are tough fought games but I can't see the Flames slowing down to an inconsistent Jets team. I agree with the sharp interest in this game also.

In other games, The Leafs received some interest in the last couple of hours and pushed the number from -325 to -370. A big mismatch here with the Habs on b2b games however they got back into Montreal in the early evening vs overnight. The Habs won back-to-back games for the first time this season (so freaking sad), they are 2-5-1 on no rest and over is 6-1.

My model liked the under 6.5 in Philly today and that total dropped to 6 now.

The Canuck line is stable however the total dropped from 6o -113 to under 5.5u -113.

Here is a free look at my NHL model for today: