Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps February 18 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or moneyline before
everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

Bergeron was back for the Bruins last night and the news wasn't official until mid-afternoon however the sharp must have had that info before everyone and prompted them to jump on the Bruins. It didn't matter, the Islanders limited the Bruins to 16 scoring chances and won 4-1. The sharps were right about the Leafs however the Pens dominated puck control and overall scoring opportunities. The Sharp money plays on the sharp report went 2-0 in the NBA.

LA KINGS VS VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS OVER

The Kings have been great on the road this year thanks to their defensive play however on the offensive side they rank bottom in the league in GF/G and powerplay efficiency. Vegas has the 3rd best home offense in the league but couldn't do much versus Colorado. Vegas is 7-3 in their last 10 versus LA and the over is 8-2. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 and they have scored an average of 7.4 goals per game. Market Makers opened the total at 5.5o -125 yesterday morning and the handle stayed steady at around 78% on the over which pushed the book to raise the total at 6o -105. LA is the only team from the 8 teams playing tonight receiving interest on the team total. The over 2.5 -125 team total received significant action vs the other team totals and it correlates with the moneyline dropping from +160 to +143. Quick has decent road splits this season however VGK has an xITT of 3.31 based on my model and taking into consideration the interest on the over 2.5 LA team total I can see this game go over. My model has this total projected 5.67 goals, I didn't like what I saw from Vegas in the last game therefore I'll sit this one out.

Dallas Stars

The Stars featured on yesterday's sharp report and they are still a hot target from the sharps making this the highest wagered game in the NHL today. Chicago played last night and looked like a team that was completely lost on the ice. The Blackhawks are 2-3-2 on no rest while the Stars are 8-7 on 2-day rest. Chicago is the 4th worst team in the NHL in defensive metrics and allows 3.48 GA/G with a crappy 77% efficiency on the PK. Heavy trends favour the over in this game, the total went over 7 straight times scoring on average 6.8 goals per game and the over is 23-4-1 in the last 28 meetings in Chicago. Unfortunately, there is no value on the over based on my model which is projecting 5.42 goals for this game however looking at the stats from last night's game, the Stars can easily score 7 just like how Columbus did and especially considering the mismatch in special teams. In DFS you need to stack the Stars powerplay, 4th best overall vs one of the worst in the league in Chicago sitting 30th on the PK.

Butler Bulldogs

Currently the most wagered game in CBB with over 10k tickets at the book, the Bulldogs hold over 80% of the tickets and handle. Market makers opened the Bulldogs a +9 (5dimes) and the line dropped to +7.5 in the last 12 hours. Butler will try and win a 3rd straight and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 with impressive wins vs Depaul and Marquette, both in which they were underdogs. Prior to those 2 wins, they lose by 2 vs Creighton (+7.5 dog), by 3 vs SJU (+1.5 dog) and by 2 vs Xavier (+11.5 dog). Butler's losing margin is just above 2 pts per game and I understand and agree on the sharp interest in this game. My CBB has the Red Strom favourite by 6 pts and we got to love the Bulldog's current momentum and value

Good luck today

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