Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps February 17 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or moneyline before
everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

What a great night for hockey last night. Small slate however all games were very entertaining and it gave us a glimpse of some NHL playoff matchups. I doubted the Avs but last night on a b2b however sharps didn't and they were right. I doubted the Panthers also after coming back from their long break and having to face the Canes on the road but the sharps didn't ..... I didn't watch much of the Nuggets game however we were spot on the analysis and the sharps completed the sweep with a straight-up win in the golden city.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

The Leafs will host the Pens in yet another great game for us to watch. Market makers opened the Leafs a -127 favourite yesterday morning and the book saw a quick amount of interest on the Leafs pushing the line to -162 3 hours after it opened. Some buyback on the Pens occurred and stabilized the line at around -145 with 70% of the handle on the Leafs. The 6.5 under was hit some US books overnight. The market makers opened the total at 6o -116. Toronto is 10-1 on a 2 days rest and is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh. The Pens road powerplay hasn't been efficient this season sitting 22nd in the league while the Leafs have the 3rd best PK at home. Pittsburgh has one of the best road records this season going 17-5-3. With no major injuries to report on either side, this will be a very balanced game with a small edge to Toronto because of Pittsburgh powerplay issues on the road. The Penguins are 14-3 in their last 17 vs. Eastern Conference, they dominated the last 5 meetings however the home team is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. My NHL model has the Leafs a -156 favourite and I feel it's high. I'll sit this one out and enjoy the game.

BOSTON BRUINS

The Islanders have been and looked so bad that even without Bergeron and Marchand the sharps have jumped on Boston and given no hope to the Islanders. With those 2 big pieces missing for the Boston, my model priced this game at a pickem. Market makers opened the Islanders a -125 favourite overnight and money just flooded in on the Bruins moving this line basically towards my model's prediction. The Islanders are 3-7 in their L10, have lost 3 straight by a margin of 2-3 goals, have the worst scoring metrics at home and are 1-8 in their last 9 games following a loss of 3 or more goals. I support the Bruins tonight however I have concerns about their play in New York + the 2 big pieces missing. Boston is 0-4 vs the NYI in their last 4 games, have only won 1 of last 8 games in New York and in the last 15 meetings the home team won over 70% of the games (11-4) The Bruins offense deflated without Bergy and Marchand and the Islanders, at the top of their game, can shut down anyone.

NBA:

Very quiet overnight and this morning. The Sharp Report has the Nets listed with sharp interest but that is all for now. We have the Clippers total that jumped 2.5 pts from its opening and I am waiting for the next update from the book to see if it was sharp money. I will update the sharp report once I get the information.

Good luck today

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