Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps February 16 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or moneyline before
everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

We covered many games yesterday and the sharps were on point on most of of them. The Blues and Pens won while the NYI were very disappointing. The Celtics completely destroyed the 76ers. ATL was the best model play, I felt ATL could have won but it's tough to bet against the Cavs ....ATL played a huge game and came up on top.

COLORADO AVALANCHE

The Avs laid an egg yesterday losing a rare one at home. We did cover the Stars in Colorado in my notes in our VIP Discord. Anyway, this is a weird one. Colorado is playing on back-to-back nights which they are a perfect 4-0 this season and will face Vegas which is better on the road this year than at home. Eichel is back, Stone went on the IL and the VGK opened a -110 favourites yesterday afternoon. Based on my NHL model there was value on COL which my model has an expected win % of 56% which translates to -127. Sharps hit the Avs at +100 and -110 but it feels wrong when looking at how Vegas dominated the Avs in previous games. Lehner is out tonight and Vegas is rolling with their backup which hasn't been bad but not as good as Lehner. I think the crowd will be a difference-maker tonight with Eichel's first game in Vegas and the Avs might show some fatigue.

FLORIDA PANTHERS

This is the game of the week and a must-watch. Two powerhouse face in Carolina. Florida has an overall top-rated offense leading the league with 4.0 GF/G and also holds the highest xGF. Things get a little messy when the Panthers hit the road, they drop to the 15th spot in xGF however still with a respectable 3.29 GF/G but that's thanks to some blowout wins on the road. The Canes have the 5th best offense and the #1 defense in the league at home. This game should be great!! Carolina is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Florida and the under dominated in the last 26 games going 16-6-4 in Carolina. The public is heavy on Carolina the book adjusted the early by pushing the Canes from -101 to -135. Sharps came in getting FLA at +120 and since the handles went from 67% Canes to 57% Panthers and the line is now +104. My NHL model basically has this game at a pick therefore the value on the Panthers was legit and I agree with the sharps however the Canes are too strong at home and the Panthers barely play over .500 on the road. I'll sit this one out and just enjoy watching these 2 battle it out on the ice.

DENVER NUGGETS

Sharps loved seeing the Nuggets at +8. they jumped all over it and it makes sense. It's a BIG number to cover for the GS that has kinda lost their mojo lately. The Nuggets have been solid thanks to the Joker and they've been solid on the road going 5-1ATS in the last 6 and 7-3 overall. The Warriors who sport the best adj.. defensive rating and haven't been the same without Green and have been allowing close to 10 more points per game. GS is 2-3 last 5 however 1-4 ATS and has only covered once in their last 6 home games. So there you go, the +8 looked really good. My NBA model has the Warriors a 6.5 pt favourite and my projection should drop closer to -5 / -5.5 if Morris plays for the Nuggets tonight.

Good luck today

Join Discord and ask @anthony p any questions you have on other games


Then, become a VIP member to get all the winning bets from our pros

🚨USE CODE TONY FOR 10% OFF🚨