Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps February 15 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or moneyline before
everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

The sharps were on point last night and swept all 3 NHL plays. The Wild was behind 2-0 early in the game but it didn't take much for them to shift gear and turbo pass Detroit to a 7-4 win. The Leafs were also dominant with a 6-2 win where Matthews was quiet. The Sharks came out rusty after 12 days of rest and didn't even score a goal. The Oilers take one 3-0.

Another busy day for the sharps in the NHL. We have 6 massive moves on favourites and the trend continues where market makers undervalue the opening line for favourites. Almost 40% of the games saw jumps of over 20% from its opening line.

Blue vs Sens from -171 to -203: We have value on Ottawa (+8.87 EV) Murray has been solid and the Sens have been grinding hard almost every game. St. Louis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Ottawa however are barely playing .500 hockey on the road.

Islanders vs Sabres from -157 to -190: Was a rough last 2 games for the Islanders losing to CGY and EDM. They are now under .500 on the road however they had great success in Buffalo going 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing Buffalo. The Islander's defense should be capable of shutting down the Sabres 8 worst offense in the league. You want to stay away from the Islanders when they are a dog, they are 1-14 in that spot however when a favourite they win at a 63% clip. My model has the Islanders are -164 therefore this is yet another inflated line.

Flyers vs Pens from -260 to -330: The Flyers have the second-worst GF production on the road this season and they have now lost Couturier for the rest of the season. It's a season to forget for them. Tonight they face a top 10 team in scoring and special teams that can easily put in 5 goals per game. This is a huge line but fair. My model has this game at -292 but like I said I understand the push to -330. The Pens are 19-6 in their last 25 while the Flyers are 2-15 in their last 17.... yes 2 wins in their last 17.

Other games with big moves are:

Tampa Bay from -230 to -277
Colorado -188 to -250
Calgary from -191 to -271

It's been a little quieter in the NBA but we have seen some important moves on low max bet limits.

Harden is still out and the line went from a pickem to -3 for Boston. The Celtics have a losing record on the road and my model has them a 1 pt favourite. The Celtics have been however Philadelphia is not a place where they've had much success lately going 1-6 ATS in their last 7.

Atlanta opened a 2 pt favourite at Betonline just to see all sharps jump on Cleveland forcing the books to the line to -1 for the Cavs. My model has the Hawks with the best +EV play at +14.27% and disagrees with the sharp interest. It's a tough one to crunch to be honest. The Hawks are still missing Collins however Young hip is good to go. The Cavs have the 3rd best adj. defensive rating this season and sit #1 in the last 14 days. Ill sit this one out and just enjoy the game.

Good luck today

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