Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps February 14 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or moneyline before
everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

We are back from another crazy week in sports. But first off, I hope everyone enjoyed the Superbowl and the halftime show! The book handled over 8 million dollars in bets in the NFL alone and it was a record for them.

Alright, let's talk NHL. I am a little late in writing this and a lot happened since this morning. Some patterns I'd like to share with you guys, the big favourites are constantly being undervalued by market makers and the sharp are taking advantage of it. In games where the line opens at -150 or higher and that there is a move of a minimum of 15% on the favourite, those bets are 21-4 in the last 25. Basically, the sharps are finding values on big favourites.

Today we are 3 games that the sharp attacked however we saw a different set of sharps buying back the other side at a certain point:

Minnesota Wild from -190 to -250 at 5Dimes. Multiple sharps, on low max limits, took interest in the WIld. At Betonline the only interest was on the RedWings at +201. My NHL model has the Wild at -229 without Dumba in the lineups tonight. If you read my other pieces you'll remember that Detroit is one of the worst road teams in the league. This line should have opened in the -200's

Toronto Maple Leafs from -160 to -230 at Betonline. No reason for this line to open so low. The Leafs have dominated teams with losing records and they have a respectable road record. The Kraken can be in for a long night facing one of the best offense in the league. Seattle is one of the worst in goals allowed therefore Grubauer will need to stand on his head tonight and if he does he can be your best low-owned GPP goalie (~3 to 5%) My NHL model has the Leafs at -207, hence why I made that early statement that there was no reason for this line to open so low.

Edmonton Oilers from -123 to -150 at Betonline. Some books are even posting -165. Also, some books showed a total of 6.5 and dropped to 6... we will talk about totals later however in this case the over 6-0 in their last 6 meetings in SJ and the over is 20-8-3 in their last 31 meetings. My model has Oilers at -137 therefore this line is starting to really get inflated, especially at the -165 levels. The Oilers are kinda playing a little better however McDavid hasn't looked the same for a while and this can be a great spot for him to score a couple. The Sharks have lost their last 3 however we can give them some credit, losing by 1 goal to TB, CAR and FLA... those are 3 powerhouses! The Sharks have been off for 12 days while the Oilers have played 3 games since the break.

A quick look at the totals, it's a busy day there also. Detroit / Minnesota from 5.5 to 6. The Hawks and Jets from 6 to 5.5. The Leafs from 6.5 to 6.

In the NBA we have a 9 game slate. Based on my model we can still find some value in the Nets but I'm not touching that game. These are the other games of interest:

SAN ANTONIO +4.5
HOUSTON OVER 229.5
SACRAMENTO OVER 227.5

Good luck today

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