Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps December 23

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or moneyline before
everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

Army squeaked a win yesterday however they were far from being dominant. The game stayed under the total. The Texas tech total went under and sharps were wrong. E Washington was once again terrible from the field.

Philadelphia 76ers

This is a big line however it's normal with all the players in the covid protocol for Atlanta. The projection without all these players missing would be 76ers -3. Market makers are struggling in pricing these games and it's interesting of seeing the early movement. The 76ers opened at -9 and immediately received sharp interest pushing the line up to -10.5. The max bet limits are at $550 which is extremely low. This just indicates that the book is being very careful before opening the max limits. Atlanta got dominated by Orlando yesterday and had to travel overnight for a B2B road game. Those are never easy!!

Phoenix Suns

Another big number that got steamed early. Both teams are pretty healthy so that's a good start. The Thunder just won their 3rd straight and beat the Clipper, Grizzlies and the Nuggets. They are playing a b2b road game and are about to visit the best team in the NBA. Phoenix is 6-0 in their last 6 at home and has been winning by an 8 point margin. Basically tonight it's a match-up between a very tired team who is last in offense vs one of the best defensive and offense. Market makers opened the Suns a -14 favourite and once again on low limits sharp interest pushed the line to -15.5. The max bet limits are at $1100 and yet again this is very low. The market makers have stopped posting their lines overnight and extended their low max limits until early afternoon. I'd do the same with all the late covid related news. 67% of the tickets and 90% of the handle are on the Suns. My NBA model has the Suns winning by 15 points. OKC is 2-2 ATS on b2b games and is 7-3 ATS vs the Suns in their L10.

San Francisco 49ers

I hate to buy high on a team but all the momentum is on the Niners. This line opened a pickem back on Dec 15th at 2 market makers. On the 19th, during and after the Steelers game sharps started pounding the Niners on decent bet limits. The -1 up to -3 was where the majority of the interest was. Betonline even had to push their line to -4 to get some interest on the Titans which they got. The line settled at -3 yesterday (between -113 and -120), big bets are obviously on the Niners however the handle balanced out and the Niners hold 60% of the handle. The ticket count is very close.

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