NBA Bet of the Day | February 10, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 152-104-3, +36.07u
RECAP: We cash out our FREE NBA of the Day again, with the Raptors giving us a game that looked like it was going to be an easy win… until they got outscored 33-19 in the fourth, and nearly squandered away our bet. I hate the Raptors – but in the end, we needed them to win by two, and they won by three. Vegas is smart, man. Huge slate today, and we’re going to have up to five PRO picks on the day. Let’s get it!

February 10, 2024

We’re once again betting on the Toronto Raptors to do something right, which is very hard to do; but then again, a broken clock is right twice a day, and we need them to do it for the second day in a row. 

The Cavaliers are heading to Toronto against a Raptor team on a back-to-back, and the Cavaliers are well-rested coming into this game. And while we’re not necessarily hoping for them to be the winning team, we are going to focus on the team total in this game. 

The Money Handles first put me on to this play, despite the line movement kind of moving in the opposite way. I think that the line will gradually move back in the direction we’re looking for as the day continues on. Currently, there are only 35% of the bets on this play, but a significant 65% of the money on this play - giving us a difference of 30%. As well, there’s a match in the Sharp AI projections, hitting the total at 230 points in this one. According to the AI, we’ve got a half point of an advantage, which is always what we’re looking for. 

As well, the trends are in our favor for this one. While the Raptors this season historically hit the over more often, which would be opposite of what we’re betting, listen to this: the Raptors hit the under 70% of the time when they’re the home underdog so far this season, good for a bottom-three percentage in the league. Despite them hitting the over often, when they’re not favored at home, their offense flounders against a good team. 

It works the same if we go to the other side of the ball, with the Cavaliers only hitting the over 33% of the time as an away favorite - once again, good for bottom-three in the league in overs. The trends are hardcore on our side tonight. 

Now, that being said, Toronto hits overs when they’re on the second game of a back-to-back, but with players sitting out, a huge spread… I don’t mind that trend going against us. It’s too situational.

Let’s hammer the under in this game while the total is as high as it’s going to be, and get in those unders before the line drops in Toronto.

PICK: Cleveland/Toronto under 230.5

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