NBA Bet of the Day | March 5, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 173-118-3, +41.88
RECAP: Whew, that might have been the absolute biggest sweat we’ve seen at NBA of the Day on Sunday, as the Celtics absolutely obliterated the Warriors in Boston. We had the under 230, and at halftime, we had 120 total points scored already; it was looking like  a wash from the get-go. Then, both teams rolled out bench lineups for the rest of the game, and it ended at 128 – just cashing our bet. We’re 3-1 over our last two days in the NBA, and we have a loaded slate today. 

March 5th, 2024

When we think of the best home teams in the league, a few teams probably come to mind, such as the Boston Celtics and Orlando Magic - in fact, when we’re talking against the spread, there are only eight teams that are profitable at home. Most wouldn’t think of this team as one of the most dominant home teams in the league, but they average wins against the spread by almost six points at home, and have won two straight against the spread their last two games. 

Tonight, the Houston Rockets host a fellow Texas team in the San Antonio Spurs at home, in a clash between two teams that have been fairly underwhelming this season. The Rockets are favored by seven and a half points, making this spread pretty desirable for the Spurs - but that’s why we’re going to fade it. The Spurs are on the side of the Book Liabilities on the Sharp Report, and that’s the side we fade as much as possible. 

As well, our Money Handles tool is solid on this play, housing 38% of the total bets on this game, but rousing 86% of the money handle - giving us a difference of 48%, and nailing that threshold we’re always looking for. 

And listen, the trends are on our side as well. The Rockets cover the spread at home 65% of the time, and they’ve shown to cover 64% of the time when they’re the home favorite. As the home favorite, they average their wins by eight points - that means that we are hitting this line pretty much exactly, and it favors our side. Even Sharp AI has this game as a correct line, sitting at -7.5 on our projections. 

As the away underdog, the Spurs lose on average by eleven points, and only have covered 46% of the time, losing to the spread by an average of two points. By our measures, the Rockets should win by nine tonight.

The last thing that I’ll say is this: Division games really don’t matter in the NBA, but for what it’s worth, the Spurs are 1-9 straight up in Division games, and 3-7 ATS, losing by an average of 13 points and against the spread by 6 points. Wemby won’t be able to save the Spurs in this game between rivals, so we’re going to take the Rockets by 8. 

PICK: Houston Rockets -7.5

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