NBA Bet of the Day | March 17, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 189-125-3, +49.40
RECAP: We lost our NBA of the Day yesterday, and got carried by our two PRO Picks to lead to another profitable day, going up .82 units. We’re now officially one win away in the NBA from reaching 50 units gained on the season, and that’s really impressive in a sport that can be so inconsistent. The winners in OKC’s total and the NYK propelled us yesterday, but let’s try and get this cash today in our freebie. 

March 17th, 2024

We have a smaller slate today, and that requires us to do a deep-dive into the most valuable plays that we have on tap today; that means that we’re heading to Orlando, where the home team is taking on the Toronto Raptors, a team that has folded over their past few games, losing six straight games. 

The loss of RJ Barrett for an extended amount of time definitely hurts the Raptors, and is something that the Orlando Magic are going to capitalize on; with the likes of Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero, they have a significant disadvantage when it comes to size. The Magic are on a tear right now, and it’s all on the back of their big forwards. 

We’ve seen the Sharps hit the Magic, and then the line has slowly been creeping back down from -13 to -11. This number, at -11, is a number that I’m more comfortable with, especially when looking at our money handles tool: we’re seeing only 24% of bets on the side of the Orlando spread, and 81% of the money on this side. Not sure what is causing the books to re-evaluate, but that’s a crazy difference of 57%. 

And listen, the Orlando Magic cover 82% of the time when they’re the home favorite. They’re 14-3 ATS on the season and win by an average of 13 points, while covering by an average of seven points. I’m not saying that the Magic are going to win by twenty, but gosh… these stats are hard to pass up on. An 82% success rate is just unreal. Even if we quantify it to just being the home team, they cover 70% of the time. They’re an absolute monster at home. 

And while the Raptors are pretty solid at being the away underdog (hitting at a 55% clip this season), they’ve only covered in two of those six losses in a row. This Orlando defense is only allowing 105 points per game over their last five games, and the Raptors are allowing 119 per game over their last five. Not ideal if you’re a fan of the Raptors covering in this game. 

I know that the number is high, and the Magic aren’t as explosive as we’d like; but all of our trends are showing that the Magic should take care of business at home. They cover 82% of the time - who are we to go against these odds? 

PICK: Orlando Magic -11

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