NBA Bet of the Day | March 10, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 182-120-3, +48.03
RECAP: Another successful day in the NBA of the Day streets, as we hit our banger of a bet to make it 8 straight NBA Freebies cashed. Over the past month, we’re up 11 units and have a return on investment of 22% – that’s crazy. And on Friday night, the Hawks went down early, but the money handles tool doesn’t fail us as they pulled away from the Grizzlies late in that game. We gained 1.71 units on the day, went 3-1, and now let’s look to make it 9 straight winners. 

March 10th, 2024

All of the trends point in one direction, and it’s also favored by our Sharp App Money Handles tool – and we’re putting it on the line for nine straight NBA of the Days. It would be a record for me, as right now we’re tied for the most in a row I’ve ever hit. 

The Washington Wizards are heading to Miami to take on the Heat in a game in which they’re underdogs by 11 points, and the over/under is sitting at 227.5. Our Sharp App AI projects this game to hit 229.5, and so we’ve got two points of wiggle room on this play, which the public does not support whatsoever. In the last ten times these teams have faced off though, the over has hit 70% of the time. 

And when we’re looking at our money handles tool, we’re seeing significant differences as well. On the over, we’re seeing only 20% of the total bets at 227.5, and a crazy 94% of the money hammering the over – that’s a difference of 74%, and something we’ll really be looking to capitalize on. The line has hovered around 227.5-229, and the over looks ripe here based on our trends. 

In Division games, the over is hitting 64% of the time, and overall when the Wizards are dogs, the over is profitable – hitting 54% of the time. The Miami Heat are definitely the ones that are going to be setting the pace in this game, and it’s a trend that may not look good for us - until we look at their deeper stats. On the road, they’re unders machines - but at home, they hit the over much more often, at a 50% clip throughout the season so far. That’s a 12% increase over their season total, which they’re only hitting the over 38% of the time. 

On the road, the Wizards are the worst defense in the league, allowing 124 points per game this season – and if we’re trusting Vegas we would hammer the over. In fact, the Wizards average 115 points per game on the road this season, while the Heat allow 113 PPG this season. That seems pretty consistent. 

The score should be about 124-112, and that means we’ll hit our total quite easily. Take the over in this game that may not be close, but should still see plenty of scoring from both sides in this scenario. 

PICK: Washington/Miami over 227.5

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