Anthony P's NHL Model October 21, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will be adding new sports and models to the app. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR OCT 21, 2022

Last night everything when the opposite way of the numbers and handicapping. Boston ended up winning in OT and took everything out of them to beat a team that is allowing over 5 GA per game. The game finished 2-1. Washington took an early 2-0 and they did exactly what Ottawa couldn't do with Boson which is holding the lead. They lost 5-2. The Islander's metrics were all over the place in this game they should have dominated.

The value plays tonight are on the BlackHawks and the under. Sharps have been all over Chicago and I don't get it. Is this trended based? Is there that much value in Chicago? My model agrees however I don't. Ok, so Detroit is 4-15 Last 19 in Chicago however Detroit is much better than last year when they were one of the worst teams in terms of GA and SOG/A. Husson in nets will fix a big issue for Detroit and the defense got better with the addition of Chariot. Detroit also has much more firepower this season with the additions of Kubalik, Perron, and Copp. Chicago's bottom 6 is not good, Toews is getting old and playing with Johnson and Raddysh and Kane is being centered by Domi who is at best a 3rd line center. If you like Detroit shop around because some books still have them in the -120's while my best line at my private book and other offshore locations is as low as -108.

As for the under, I like it at 6.5. Both teams have allowed under 2.65 GA/G. Detroit's powerplay is not off to a great start with a 9% efficiency however their PK is at 100% and haven't allowed a goal in 10 PKs. Chicago's PP is at 29% however gets a downgrade with how good Detroit's PK has been. Both teams have terrible Corsi ratings (41% and 44% ouch) and puck possession might get very messy tonight.

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