Anthony P's NHL Model October 20, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will be adding new sports and models to the app. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR OCT 20, 2022

Yesterday the model liked the under in Seattle and then during the day with all the money coming in on Seattle, the Blues became the top value play. The game went over however the Blues won in overtime.

The model likes a bunch of totals but the way things are going just bet the over in every game right? Well wrong, I mean you've seen a shitload of goals early in this season however the over are 31-24-3 6.5% ROI. It's profitable playing all-overs and it hits at 56%. I felt like it was more in the 60%'s.

BOSTON -199
ARIZONA +148
WASHINGTON -101
NY ISLANDERS -140

You guys know I hardly support big favorites but my model has been very strong on some of them and I believe we haven't lost a bet yet. We had the Panthers yesterday.

The Bruins offense is smoking hot scoring 23 goals in their first 4 games and is facing the 2nd worst defense in the league after 4 games. The Ducks have allowed 5.25 GA/G, their PK is almost at 60% while the Bruins PP is at 25%. My model has the Bruins scoring 4.51 goals tonight. The Bruins are playable in regulation, puck line, and moneyline.

Arizona is playing in Montreal and the Habs beat the Leafs and Pens in their first 4 games. Should be an easy win for the Habs right? Wrong, the Habs are terrible versus shitty teams and the Coyotes are 5-2 in their last 7 in Montreal. The Coyotes beat the Leafs as a +420 dog (you try and understand that) and both teams will find themselves at the bottom of the standings by the end of the year. I can't bet on or against my Habs but the value makes sense in Arizona.

I'm not sure how back I need to go to see when was the last time the Sens scored 7+ goals in a game but they did versus a tired Boston team 2 nights ago. Both teams haven't really shown any consistency yet and this is a tough game to handicap. Ottawa has allowed 4 GA/G and their special teams haven't been good. Versus the Bruins, 12 goals were scored and 11 of them were on 5v5 and Ottawa just couldn't keep the lead. When Ove gets going that is when the Caps start winning streaks. Ovechkin averages over 1 point per game in 51 games versus the Sens and he's a +20. Most importantly he averages close to 5 SOG per game in Ottawa, this increased his S% by 14%. The Capitals roll tonight.

The Islanders are the best value play on the board tonight with a +12% EV. The books once again keep on overvaluing the Devils and this opens up value for the Islanders. The Devils should give the Islanders a more competitive game than the Sharps and Ducks. Nonetheless the weaker opponents, the Islanders dominated both Sharks and Duck putting up 46 and 38 SOGs and those are weird numbers to put up since they were 3rd last in SOGs last year. I like the Islanders tonight.

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