Anthony P's NHL Model October 17, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will be adding new sports and models to the app. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR OCT 17, 2022

No games to review for yesterday.

The model has the Bruins as a -127 favorite and that is a little generous in my opinion. They were impressive versus the Capitals however the Caps were flat. They played the Coyotes and won 6-3 however it was 3-3 in the 3rd.

This will be the Panthers 3rd road and they won the first 2 games. It's rare we see the Bruins as a home underdog and the bookmakers might have got this wrong based on the model's projections but once again in not sure. The Bruins are still missing some key players but in return, Bobrovsky has been bad versus the Bruins and he allows close to 4 GA/G when playing them. This game is too close of a call and I would lean with the home dog here.

The Jets finished last season allowing over 4 GA/G on the road while the Stars were shutting down opponents allowing just under 2.20 GA/G. The Jets looked good versus the Rangers BUT the Rangers were on a b2b road spot and Hellebuyck stopped over 40 pucks in that game. The Starts looked even more impressive betting the Preds 4-1, 5-1, and playing some solid defense. The issue with the Stars is that they haven't been shooting much. My lean is on the Stars.

The Canes had the best defensive metrics in terms of GA/G last year at 2.44. It's just normal that my model will be very strong on the under especially when the total is at 6.5. The Kraken is 0-7 in their last 7 when playing in a 4th game in 6 nights therefore my expectations are low on them. Seattle is 2-1 on the over in their first 3 games and has already allowed 5 power-play goals. The trends on the over are too strong when it comes down to Seattle and that scares me. I'll pass on this one.

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