Anthony P's NHL Model October 14, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will be adding new sports and models to the app. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR OCT 14, 2022

The model's best plays went 2-2 yesterday for plus money. I was surprised to see the Devils and Senators losing last night but it's still VERY early in the season so we will need a larger sample size of games for me before reevaluating their power ratings. Nonetheless, the model saw value in Buffalo and Philadelphia and it wasn't wrong.

Tonight the model likes 2 totals. The over in Detroit and the under in Winnipeg.

The Rangers played last night and are on back-to-back road games and will dress Halak between the pipes. New York scored 6 goals in Minnesota and for an offense that was below league average last year, they have looked really good in their first 2 games. This is a transition year for the Jets, they have leadership issues and Dubois already told the Jets that he will test the free agency market in the summer. Both teams play the under when they face each other going 4-1 in their last 5. It's too early to talk about fatigue however road back-to-back games are never easy and I support the under in this game.

As I'm writing this I see the total in Detroit moving to 6.5 and toward the model projections. At 6.5 there is no more value on the over. Allen is confirmed and Nedeljkovic should also be confirmed at morning practice as per early reports. If Husso starts then I would stay away from the over, especially at 6.5. Detroit is much stronger this year adding Husso, Perron, Copp, and Kubalik. We should see much more scoring this year since their top 6 have a very good mix of young and experienced players. Montreal was the worst road team last year in terms of GA/G and they gave up 4.05GA/G. Their PK was also bottom 10 in the league on the road. I support the over at 6 however not at 6.5.

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