Anthony P's NHL Model October 11, 2022
Anthony P
As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will be adding new sports and models to the app. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.
Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.
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Welcome to the first slate of the new NHL season. We have a 2 game slate. I already locked in the Rangers 2 days ago and the value is gone on them as the line keeps on moving up. The model is showing value on the under in Los Angeles. The model is strong on the under since it's projecting 5.23 and the books have it at 6. We have close to 10% EV on the under.
Vegas is finally healthy however have lost Patches and Lehner. The Kings had a strong second half of the season last year and they added Fiala to their offense. In the last 4 games they've played they scored on average 7.5 goals per game.
I don't agree with the model and I believe the total should be around 6.
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