Anthony P's NHL Model November 8, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will be adding new sports and models to the app. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR NOV 8, 2022

DAMN YOU CAPITOLS!! The model was right on the value on the Caps and hopefully, the Caps start playing the way they should and stop messing up my projections!

There is a ton of value in the NHL tonight and with no NBA on the board we should see some incremental money pumped in some of the games and we should see more movement than usual. I will try and cover the most games possible in the Overnight Grind article.

We already locked in the under 6 between the Stars and Jets!

I've trashed the Devils so much in the last 3-4 years and I am happy to see them dominating. They have the 5th best offense and 7th best GA/G but they just lost Blackwood for 4-6 weeks. Vanecek will start tonight and he's been great with his 5-1 record and 2.21 GAA. Vladar gets the start for the Flames playing on a b2b with short travels from Long Island to Jersey. After watching the Flames play last night and allowing 5 GA/G in their last 5, I cannot trust the under.

We have 2 bottom defenses in Ottawa tonight and we have a projected total of 7.71. The total looks to be moving to 7 so if you like it grab it now. The over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings but when the total is at 6.5 it's 1-4 last 5 games. I expect an offensive game and I like the over.

The Blues have lost 7 straight, will be playing on a b2b, and are projected to dress backup goalie Greiss for this game. During this losing streak, the Blues have scored 1.5 GF/G and tonight they will have the tough task to beat Carter Hart and his 1.97 GAA and .946 SV%. The Flyers had lost 3 straight going into Ottawa and they played an amazing defensive game, took the W, and limited the Sens solid offense to 1 goal. I like the value on the Flyers.

Fun fact, close to 35% of all scoring has come from Suzuki and Caufield. Secondary scoring has been a disaster for the Habs and they are 25th in offense this year. Copps line should have the responsibility to shut down MTL1 but they don't have good possession numbers therefore this can favor the Habs. The Wings just beat the Caps, Islanders, Rangers and their PP scored in 3 straight while the Habs PK has allowed goals in 5 straight. I'm not crazy about the Habs and the value on the under since special teams can make the difference here and that edge is on the Wings.

The Islanders never gave up last night and came back from a 3-1 deficit and won in OT. How much left do they have in the tank? The Islanders have won 6 of their last 7 and have beaten the Rangers, Avs, Canes, and Flames. The Rangers are slumping and lost their last 2. A concerning metric about the Rangers is that they allowed 36 SOG/A in their last 2 and Igor hasn't been up to his standards. I like the Rangers to bounce back tonight and take advantage of the Islanders fatigue factor!

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